The rate at which Earth's
temperature can change
is important to know.
Real climate science
can help in that regard.
Real climate science
studies the past climate,
using climate proxies,
up to the 1900s, and
real time temperature
measurements have been
used to compile a global
average temperature
since 1880.
There were too few Southern
Hemisphere measurements
in the surface global average
temperature before 1940,
so I consider the surface
temperature data to be
worthless before 1940.
Climate junk science
is just repeated,
and always wrong,
wild guesses
of the future climate.
Even though the predictions
of dangerous global warming
have been consistently wrong,
for many decades, gullible people
still believe IPCC predictions.
That's why this climate science
blog exists.
When someone predicts the
climate 100 years in the future,
it's hard to refute the prediction
without waiting for over 50 years.
A 100-year prediction
could look very wrong
after just 10 years,
and they usually do,
but if you point that out,
you will be told:
" It's a long-term
100-year prediction,
not a short-term
10-year prediction! "
When a global warming
prediction is made,
you CAN point out
that past global warming
predictions have been
very wrong, since the
late 1950s !
You can also compare the
predicted rate of warming
with actual past warming
rates of our planet.
Climate change rates,
of approximately
+1 degree C. per century,
have been estimated
using climate proxies
( often retraced within
a few centuries ).
The actual warming rate
since 1940 has been
+0.077 degrees C.
per decade.
Looking at
the entire record
of the UAH
weather satellites,
from 1979
through 2018,
the average
temperature
increased by
+0.55 degrees C.
in those 40 years,
or at a rate of
+0.01375 degrees C.
per decade.
Higher temperature
change rates than those
are unknown.
Scenarios that require
sustained warming rates
of +0.3 degrees C. per decade
should be immediately rejected
as being highly unlikely.
Even with the rapidly
increasing CO2 levels,
after 1940, our planet
did NOT warm at a rate
that was anywhere close
to +0.3 degree C. per decade,
even if you assume CO2
caused ALL of the warning
( a worst case estimate ).
In 1990,
the UN's IPCC
(formed in 1988),
predicted a
global warming rate
of +0.3 degrees C.
per decade
for the next
100 years,
from adding
man made
CO2 to the air !
And they still do !
The IPCC simply ignores
the actual warming rate of
+0.077 degrees C. per decade
since 1940, and
+0.1375 degrees C. per decade
since 1979.
The IPCC, based on the
average of climate models
they use for predictions,
predicts triple (since 1979)
to quadruple (since 1940)
the global warming
that actually happens,
proving they are
much more interested
in scaring people
about global warming,
than in making correct
predictions about global
warming !
The IPCC predicted warming rate
is +3.0 degrees C. in 100 years
( or +0.3 degrees C. per decade )
The actual global warming rate
from 1940 through 2018,
was +0.6 degrees C. in 78 years
( or +0.077 degrees C. per decade )
It makes no sense
for the IPCC to predict
+0.3 degrees C.
of global warming
per decade,
when actual
global warming
( in the "era of man made CO2' )
has been only
+0.077 degrees C.
per decade since 1940,
which is only 25.7%
of the IPCC-predicted
warming rate !
The IPCC predictions were
unrealistically high in 1990,
and remain unrealistically high
in 2019.
As each decade passes,
it becomes more obvious
the IPCC's primary output
is very wrong wild guesses
about the future climate,
which is junk science,
not real climate science !
That is especially obvious
after global warming
stopped in 2003, through
2018, per UAH weather
satellite global average
temperature data !