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Monday, April 8, 2019

Climate models are always wrong -- especially predicted regional climate changes

Climate models provide "answers" 
to all conceivable questions
about the future climate. 

Political decision-makers love them.

But the predictions are always wrong !

On average, climate computer models
predicted triple the global warming
that actually happened since 1979.

And no model predicted the lack of global
warming from 2003 through 2018.

When back tested, models predicted
very little of the global warming 
from 1910 to 1940, on average.

Rainfall across southern Europe 
has risen for several decades, 
the opposite direction of what 
was projected by climate models !




A research team 
led by Timm Hoffman 
compared model projections
with actual vegetation 
development in southern Africa,
using historical photos. 

In contrast to model projections, 
no significant long-term trend 
in precipitation could be observed. 

Vegetation belts were 
supposed to shrink, 
but they actually expanded. 





From the study abstract 
published in the journal 
Anthropocene in March 2019:

"Most projections of climate change 
for southern Africa describe a 
hotter and drier future 
with catastrophic consequences 
for the environment and 
socio-ecological sustainability 
of the region."

"Rainfall, however, apparently,
has not changed significantly." 

"Results from analysis, of 1,321 
repeat historical photographs, 
indicate broad trends in vegetation
trajectories in the major biomes 
of southern Africa."

"The Savanna biome has experienced 
a rapid increase in woody plant
at rates un-anticipated by the models."





CO2 is doing its job 
of greening the planet, 
and not putting all life 
in jeopardy.

A small increase 
in the atmospheric CO2 
has been accompanied by 
a large increase in the 
greening of the planet.

There is no ‘CO2 Armageddon!’.

We  are getting a more lush, green, 
and pleasant, planet as CO2 rises.