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Saturday, May 11, 2019

American Enterprise Institute Analysis of the Green New Deal

THE GREEN NEW DEAL:
Economics and Policy Analytics
by Benjamin Zycher

April 2019
American Enterprise Institute
The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) 
is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) 
educational organization and does not 
take institutional positions on any issues. 

The views expressed here 
are those of the author(s).

The full report,
117-page pdf,
is here:


My Carefully 
Selected Quotes
are below:


From the 
Executive 
Summary:

"The Green New Deal (GND) 
is a set of policy proposals, 
some more concrete than others, 
with the central advertised goal
of ameliorating a purported 
climate crisis by implementing 
policies that would reduce 
US greenhouse gas (GHG) 
emissions to zero, 
or to “net zero,” by 2050 
in some formulations. "



"In addition, the GND incorporates 
other important social-policy goals 
as a means of forging a majority 
political coalition in support."




"Under an assumption consistent 
with the findings reported in the 
recent peer-reviewed literature, 
the (global average temperature)
effect would be 0.083°C by 2100, 
a policy impact not measurable 
against normal variation 
in temperatures."
(Important Note: 
The +0.083 C. assumes 
a future global warming rate 
that is double the actual global
warming rate from 1940 through 2018)

"This conclusion
(on temperature change)
is not controversial 
and suggests strongly 
that the GND’s
real goal is 
wealth redistribution 
to favored political interests 
under the GND 
social-policy agenda 
and a dramatic increase in 
government control 
of resource allocation 
more generally."




"The GND electricity mandate 
would create significant 
environmental damage
—there is nothing clean 
about “clean” electricity
— and require massive land use
 of over 115 million acres 
(about 180,000 square miles), 
about 15 percent larger 
than the land area of California".


"Without fossil-fired backup generation, 
the national and regional electricity 
systems would be characterized by 
a significant decline in service reliability
—that is, a large increase in the 
frequency and duration of blackouts."


"The claim from some GND supporters, 
based on a set of arguments subsumed 
under the heading Modern Monetary Theory, 
that it can be financed with money creation
is deeply dubious."


"Modern Monetary Theory is little more 
than the latest example of the old argument 
that there is available a free lunch ... "


"The current body of evidence 
on climate phenomena supports 
the hypothesis that some part of 
ongoing temperature trends 
and climate phenomena 
are anthropogenic
(man made) 
in origin, but it does not support 
the argument that a climate crisis 
is present or looming."


"Given the tragic and predictable 
record of central planning outcomes 
worldwide over the past century, 
the GND should be rejected."





Other Quotes:


"This question of the 
(global) climate impacts
 of the GND, ostensibly 
its main policy goal,
is so obviously central to GND 
policy proposals that the failure 
of its proponents even to 
discuss it is revealing ..."



"That the GND proponents 
advocate strong “climate” 
policies even given the trivial 
climate effects of the attendant 
policy prescriptions suggests 
strongly that environmental (“climate”)
benefits are not the central goal 
of the proponents and indeed 
are irrelevant. Instead, the actual goals 
are more likely political and ideological."



"The proponents of the GND 
assert that this destruction 
of the economic value of 
(fossil fuel) resources and capital 
would increase national wealth 
and employment, improve 
environmental quality, 
and enhance distributional equity
—a deeply dubious proposition."




"If conventional energy 
is a social “bad” as assumed 
by GND proponents, ...
(then) increasing GDP and rising 
employment are inconsistent 
with a reduction in the consumption 
of conventional energy and thus with 
the policy goals of the GND. At a 
household (or individual) level, 
rising incomes have the effect 
of increasing energy consumption ... "



"The GND at a fundamental level 
is antihuman in that its goals 
are diametrically opposed 
to the (economic growth) 
aspirations 
of nearly all 
individuals."



" ... increasing 
energy consumption 
is correlated 
with reductions 
in the poverty rate, 
and the data 
on annual differences 
in energy consumption 
and the poverty rate 
provide powerful evidence 
that this correlation 
is not spurious: 
  An artificial reduction 
in energy consumption 
would tend to increase 
the poverty rate."



" ... several serious 
adverse impacts 
not acknowledged by 
GND supporters 
are of interest. 

In summary: 
There is the
heavy-metal pollution 
created by 
the production process 
for wind turbines.

There are the noise 
and flicker effects 
of wind turbines.

There are the 
large problems 
of solar panel waste 
and toxic metals.

There is the 
wildlife destruction 
caused by the production 
of renewable power.

There also is the problem 
of massive land use ... "




"Electric generation 
capacity fueled by 
renewable energy sources
is not “dispatchable”; 
that is, 
it is not available on demand 
because wind and sunlight 
are intermittent. "

It requires (fossil fuel) 
backup generation 
capacity to preserve 
system reliability."