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Saturday, June 29, 2019

In 1981, the 1940s to 1970s were said to have had a lot of global cooling ... Today we are beomng told that Global Cooling Never Happened

Here's the story about the
the 1940's to 1970's that 
has been "erased" from 
the climate history books,
by smarmy NASA-GISS,
world leaders in science fraud:

Until the mid-1980s, 
it was widely accepted 
in the peer-reviewed 
scientific literature 
that there was global 
cooling between the 
1940s and 1970s.

More than -0.5°C of cooling 
in the Northern Hemisphere, 
as documented by NASA (1981):

 “[T]he temperature in the
 Northern Hemisphere 
decreased by about 0.5°C
 between 1940 and 1970,
 a time of rapid CO2 buildup. 
 …  Northern latitudes warmed 
~ 0.8°C between the 1880’s
 and 1940, then cooled 
– 0.5°C between 1940 and 1970.”

Between 1958 and 1963 alone, 
the National Academy 
of Sciences (NAS, 1975) 
cited an analysis of 
about 200,000 measured 
temperatures that said 
the Northern Hemisphere’s 
temperatures plummeted 
by -0.6°C (Starr and Oort, 1973).

The NAS also concluded that
 a “serious worldwide cooling” 
has a “finite probability” 
to befall the Earth within 
the next century, or by about 2075.

NOAA (1974) also agreed that 
Northern Hemisphere temperatures
 declined by about -0.5°C after 1940, 
but additionally pointed out that 
a new ice age may be approaching, 
with scientists linking the 1970s-era 
droughts and crop failures 
and ice expansion to the 
ongoing global cooling.

NOAA, 1974    
“Many climatologists have associated 
this drought and other recent weather 
anomalies with a global cooling trend 
and changes in atmospheric circulation 
which, if prolonged, pose serious threats 
to major food-producing regions of the world. 

… Annual average temperatures 
over the Northern Hemisphere
 increased rather dramatically
from about 1890 through 1940, 
but have been falling ever since. 
The total change has averaged 
about one-half degree Centigrade, 
with the greatest cooling 
in higher latitudes.”

A decades-long cooling trend 
during the modern era is not
convenient for those 
who advocate for the position 
that humans control 
the temperatures of the 
oceans and atmosphere 
by emitting more, or less, CO2.

So, instead of allowing
the original temperature 
data showing +0.8°C  
warming and -0.5°C cooling 
(Northern Hemisphere) 
to remain, temperature data 
government bureaucrats
decided to gradually remove 
several tenths of a degree 
from the warming 
and cooling amplitudes.

Now, instead of +0.8°C  
of  Northern Hemisphere 
warming between the 1880s 
and 1940, it’s about +0.3°C.  

Instead of -0.5°C of cooling 
between the 1940 and 1970, 
it’s been changed to about -0.1°C.  

About half a degree 
of temperature change 
was removed from both trends.

NOAA now shows a pause occurred:

The global cooling has been removed
from climate history, although I will
never stop reporting a cooling trend
from 1940 to 1975, based on extensive
peer reviewed scientific literature
at the time.

Extensive scientific records 
document that global cooling trend.

Over 300 scientific publications 
documented concerns pertaining
to the 1960s and 1970s 
global cooling, sometimes
leading to an Ice Age scare.

Here are 51 of them:
Note: some links only show the abstracts

“A new glacial insolation regime, expected to last 8,000 years, began just recently. Mean global temperatures may eventually drop about 1°C in the next hundred years.”

2. NOAA, 1974    
“Annual average temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere increased rather dramatically from about 1890 through 1940, but have been falling ever since. The total change has averaged about one-half degree Centigrade, with the greatest cooling in higher latitudes". 

 “[B]etween 1880 and 1940 a net warming of about 0.6°C occurred, and from 1940 to the present our globe experienced a net cooling of 0.3°C."

     “According to Dr. Hubert Lamb–an outstanding British climatologist–22 out of 27 forecasting methods he examined predicted a cooling trend through the remainder of this century.  … [I]n periods when climate change [cooling] is underway, violent weather — unseasonal frosts, warm spells, large storms, floods, etc.–is thought to be more common.”

“In recent years there have appeared a rash of papers claiming an upward trend in airborne particulates, which is presumed to have already reversed the alleged CO2 induced heating of the atmosphere observed between the 1880’s and 1940’s and to pose the further threat of inducing another ice age. "

“Evidence has been presented and discussed to show a cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere since around 1940, amounting to over 0.5°C. The mean annual temperature of the Northern Hemisphere increased about 1°C from 1880 to about 1940 and then cooled about 0.5°C by around 1960.”

 “In the period from 1880 to 1940, the mean temperature of the earth increased about 0.6°C; from 1940 to 1970, it decreased by 0.3-0.4°C."

 “Starr and Oort (1973) have reported that, during the period 1958-1963, the hemisphere’s (mass-weighted) mean temperature decreased by about 0.6 °C. …   Since the 1940’s, mean temperatures have declined and are now nearly halfway back to the 1880 levels."

“[M]ost recent years of hemispheric surface temperatures (Mitchell, 1970) show rises of about 0.6C over the 0-80N belt between 1880 and 1940, followed by a subsequent decline to current temperatures about 0.3C above 1880."

“A recent flurry of papers has provided further evidence for the belief that the Earth is cooling. There now seems to be little doubt that changes over the past few years are more than a minor statistical fluctuation. … The observed cooling corresponds to a re-establishment of the ‘Little Ice Age’ which persisted for several hundred years up to the end of the nineteenth century”

“Since 1945 there has been a cooling trend and we are now nearly back down to the averages of the early 19th century.”

“Since about 1945 [to 1974], global cooling, on a scale of -0.01°C/yr [-0.3°C total], has reversed the warming trend of the first decades of our century."

 “One could effectively argue that in the early 1970s the prevailing view was that the earth was moving toward a new ice age. Many articles appeared in the scientific literature as well as in the popular press speculating about the impact on agriculture of a 1-2°C cooling.”

“Much of the 20th century has experienced glacier recession, but probably it would be premature to declare the Little Ice Age over.”

 “Concern about the impact of the recent downward trend in the average surface temperature for the ‘Northern Hemisphere’ (Reitan, 1974; Angell and Korshover, 1975) on the world food supply has led to an increasing interest in possible changes in the length of the growing season (NRC, 1976; NRC, 1977)."

“The Holocene has already run a course of at least 10,000 yr. If it is like earlier interglacials, it will end soon, giving way to gradually developing cold conditions“

17. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, 1974
 “The western world’s leading climatologists have confirmed recent reports of a detrimental global climate change.  The stability of most nations is based upon a dependable source of food, but this stability will not be possible under the new climatic era. A forecast by the University of Wisconsin projects that the earth’s climate is returning to that of the neo-boreal era (1600-1850) – an era of drought, famine, and political unrest in the western world [the Little Ice Age].”

"Since the late 1960s, a number of foreboding climatic predictions has appeared in various climatic, meteorological, and geological periodicals … Early in the 1970s, a series of adverse climatic anomalies occurred:  • The world’s snow and ice cover had increased by at least 10 to 15 percent.  •  In the eastern Canadian area of the Arctic Greenland, below normal temperatures were recorded for 19 consecutive months. Nothing like this had happened in the last 100 years. ”

 “They show that the Northern Hemisphere annual mean temperature has risen about 1°C from 1880 to about 1940 and has fallen about 0.5 °C since then.”

 “In 1970, Mitchell stated that by the late 1960s global temperatures had fallen 0.3°C from the peak in the 1940s, approximately one-half of the prior rise.  Similarly, Budyko reported that temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere fell 0.3-0.4°C between 1940 and 1976.  Summaries by Schneider and Dickenson, Kalnicky, Robuck, Roberts, and Agee all report Northern Hemisphere temperatures declines by at least 0.5°C since the 1940s.”

20. Hoffert and Flannery, 1985
“In the last century it is possible to document an increase of about 0.6°C in the mean global temperature between 1880 and 1940 and a subsequent fall of temperature by about 0.3°C since 1940. In the polar regions north of 70° latitude the decrease in temperature in the past decade alone has been about 1°C, several times larger than the global average decrease"

21. Bradley and Miller, 1972
“The climatic warming trend since the 1880s, which seems to have been global in extent and was manifested by an upward trend in mean annual (and particularly mean winter) temperatures, seems to have given way since the 1940s to a cooling trend, which is most marked in higher latitudes.”

“It is not clear how such favorable and relatively consistent conditions are related to the higher temperatures in this century or the peaking of temperatures around 1940. The reversal of this warming trend, however, could mark the beginning of a new ice age“

“There has also been a concern about a possible climatic catastrophe [global cooling] being imminent because of the increase in the quantity of industrial pollutants in the atmosphere (Rasool and Schneider, 1971).”

“Many of the snowfall time-series curves for the lake stations show downward trends during the 1920’s and 1930’s, at the height of the recent warm period, and the more recent snowfall increase has coincided with a general world-wide cooling which has occurred in the last several decades [1940s-1970s]. Recent evidence derived from [isotope] analysis of ice core samples on the Greenland ice cap indicates a continuance of this cooling trend for another 20 or 30 years [through the 1990s].”

 “Convection in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Leading to a Surge of the Ice Sheet and Possibly to a New Ice Age  … [A] surge of the ice sheet appears likely.”

“Since the ‘little ice age’ of 1650-1840, which climaxed the cooling trend from about 1300, a new warming trend predominated which seems to have reached a climax in the 1920’s, followed by cooling since about 1940, at first irregularly but then sharply since about 1960."

“In the short term (left) the temperature has risen by about 1/2 degree Celsius since the 1880s, and from the middle 1940s to the middle 1960s it dropped about 1/4 degree. What’s wrong with this picture is that there should be large error bars on it, because there are still vast regions of oceans not covered by thermometers.”

“Northern latitudes warmed ~ 0.8°C between the 1880’s and 1940, then cooled – 0.5°C between 1940 and 1970, in agreement with other analyses.”

 “Recorded data show that from 1940 to the early 1970s the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere slowly decreased, with a net cooling of approximately 1°F [-0.55 °C] over the continents and less cooling over the oceans."

“In recent decades, however, a general cooling has been apparent in high latitudes. In northeast Greenland this appears to have been of the order of 0.3°C for the period 1940 to 1959“

“Theoretical considerations and empirical evidence indicate that atmospheric turbidity, a function of aerosol loading, is an important factor in the heat balance of the earth-atmosphere system. Turbidity increase over the past few decades may be primarily responsible for the decrease in worldwide air temperatures since the 1940’s“

 “Kukla and associates (1977) presented “new data on climatic trends” and showed that during the last 30 years in the Northern Hemisphere, the oscillatory cooling has not yet reversed."

“Mean monthly temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere were determined for the years 1955 through 1968 following the same procedures used by H. C. Willett and J. M. Mitchell, Jr., in their studies of long-term trends. It was found that the downward trend they reported starting in the 1940s continued, though interrupted, into the 1960s.”

34. Schneider and Dickinson, 1974
 “Milder climate has returned in modern times, but the optimum (warmest) condition occurred in the 1940’s, and since then, there has been a fairly rapid cooling in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere."

“The effect of the atmospheric aerosol load on the earth’s climate has been of great concern during the past decade.  McCormick and Ludwig (1967), Bryson (1968) and Mitchell (1970) suggested an increase of particulate loading would lead to a decrease in incoming solar radiation that would, in turn, lead to a general cooling of the earth’s temperature as observed during the past 30 years. “

“An appreciable number of non-urban stations in the United States and Canada have been identified with statistically significant (at the 90% level) decreasing trends in the monthly mean diurnal temperature range between 1941–80.”

“The decade of 1971-80 was 1.5°F cooler than 1931-40. The latest 40-year period of general cooling in annual values is a result of down trends in winter, summer, and fall seasonal temperatures”

“ On this evidence, something like the climatic regime of the years since 1960 [global cooling] should probably be expected to persist till the end of the century or beyond“

“Budyko and Asakura (in NAS, 1975) show that for the period 1880-1969, average temperature for the northern hemisphere attained a maximum around 1940 and decreased until 1969.”

 “Some investigators (McCormick and Ludwig, 1967; Bryson, 1968; Rasool and Schneider, 1971) attributed the decrease in mean air temperatures of the northern hemisphere since the 1940’s to an increase in the atmospheric aerosol load."

“ Mitchell (1965) states that world climate during the past century has been characterized by a warming trend from the 1880’s to the 1940’s. Thereafter, the warming trend appears to have given way to a cooling trend that has continued to at least 1960 with some evidence that it was continuing in 1965.”

42. Wahl and Bryson, 1975
“Recent changes in Atlantic surface temperatures … a distinctive decrease of 0.56 °C from the 1951–55 period to the 1968–72 period“

 “The cooling of the Northern Hemisphere since 1940 has been variously interpreted as the overture to the next Ice Age, the effect of industrial pollution in the atmosphere or of a decline in the solar output."

“Thus, during the last 3 decades, larger winter cooling anomalies, supported by observations and model studies, have greatly influenced the climate pattern – made it cooler and unstable.”

“ ... a new warming trend ... seems to have reached a climax in this century, followed by cooling since about 1940, at first irregularly but more sharply since about 1960.”

46. Holdren and Ehrlich, 1971
 Global Ecology: Readings toward a rational strategy for man [pgs. 76,77] … “It seems, however, that a competing effect has dominated the situation since 1940. This is the reduced transparency of the atmosphere to incoming light as a result of urban air pollution (smoke, aerosols), agricultural air pollution (dust), and volcanic ash. This screening phenomenon is said to be responsible for the present world cooling trend—a total of about .2°C in the world mean surface temperature over the past quarter century. This number seems small until it is realized that a decrease of only 4°C would probably be sufficient to start another ice age." 

“The mean temperature for the Northern Hemisphere had a warming trend from 1890 to 1950 and a cooling trend since 1950. The eastern and central United States had colder temperatures in 1961–1970 than in 1931–1960.”

“His latest results (Kukla et al., 1977) indicate clearly a cooling of most of the Northern Hemisphere in the period from 1950 to 1975, reaching 0.1-0.2°C per decade (Fig. 3).”

“While the average temperature of the Arctic was at a maximum in the 1930’s, the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was greatest in the decade of the 1940’s. After the 1930’s, temperatures fell: a drop of 0.85°C occurred up to the 1960’s.”

“Although changes of total atmospheric dust loading may possibly be sufficient to account for the observed 0.3°C-cooling of the earth since 1940, the human-derived contribution to these loading changes is inferred to have played a very minor role in the temperature decline.”

“Figure 2 shows 10-yr moving averages of monthly temperatures for June, July, and August. All 3 mo[nths] show temperature declines since the height of the recent climatic optimum during the 1930s.  July temperatures have decreased about 3.5°F since the decades beginning with the early 1930s, and August temperatures have decreased about 3°F since the decades beginning with the late 1930s and early 1940s.”