The primary effect of greenhouse
warming should be a reduction
in the temperature differential
between the tropics and the poles.
That has NOT happened
in the Southern hemisphere,
but HAS happened in
the Northern Hemisphere.
In fact, Arctic warming,
and the smaller
temperature differential
between the Arctic and the
tropics, is decent evidence
for greenhouse gas warming.
That reduced temperature
differential would be
a very reasonable
explanation for the
long-term down trends of
US extreme weather events,
such as hurricanes and
tornadoes.
It's puzzling, and anti-science,
to blame man made CO2
for causing about
+0.6 degrees C.,
warming since 1940,
without scientific proof.
And even more anti-science
to blame warming for any
extreme weather events.
That blame starts with
the assumption, not a fact,
that the mild global warming
since 1940 is attributable
to man made CO2 emissions,
with no scientific proof
that attribution is correct.
There's no way to know if
the mild, intermittent warming
since 1940, was natural climate
change, or man made climate
change.
Merely asserting it's man made,
and claiming a consensus
of some subset of scientists,
does not create truth.
But even if you insist on
believing that warming was
caused ONLY by man made
CO2, there is no
convincing evidence
global warming
has caused a change
in US hurricane or
tornado activity,
both of which are in
long term down trends.
In addition, any expected
man made change
in extreme weather events
would be very small,
relative to expected
natural variability.
No climate change signal
has been detected in sea levels,
from long term records
of tide gauges that are
mounted on stable surfaces.
Experts disagree
on most aspects
of climate change,
if you consider ALL
scientists, not just
climate modelers.
If the air is a little warmer,
we may EXPECT more rain.
If sea surface temperatures
are a little warmer,
we may EXPECT the
tropical hurricanes
to be more intense.
But the warming
may be caused by
natural variability,
or man made.
Since no one knows
the cause of the warming,
other than a list of
'the usual suspects',
the cause is a wild guess.
As scientists are interviewed,
following each hurricane,
they get mass media attention
only if they blame global warming.
They might get attention on
Fox News, maybe, if they refuted
the 'global warming caused the
hurricane narrative', or at least
dismissed the 'global warming
made the hurricane more intense
narrative'.
Scientists who try to prove
climate change isn’t causing
extreme weather, get character
attacked.
Scientist Roger Pielke Jr., at the
University of Colorado in Boulder,
used to do world-leading research
on climate change and
extreme weather.
He found convincing evidence
climate change was NOT leading
to higher rates of weather-related
damages worldwide, after he
adjusted for increasing
population and wealth.
Pielke then faced a vicious
smear campaign, backed by
the Obama Administration, and
leading Democrat congressmen.
Dr John Holdren ( Obama’s Director
of Office of Science, Technology
and Policy ) posted an attack
on the White House web page,
against Mr. Pielke's findings
on disasters, and climate change,
which was both inappropriate,
and scientifically incorrect.
Under great pressure,
Pielke quit the field in 2015.
False arguments that a small
amount of global warming
would result in more intense
hurricanes, got a lot of attention,
after 2005's Hurricane Katrina.
That accelerated a climate cult
strategy to scare school children,
and have them convince their parents.
The child activist movement,
unfortunately, is similar to
events during the emergence
of most fascist and communist
movements.
Recruitment of children
into the “culture wars”
is discussed here:
The current poster child
for this smarmy activity
is Swedish teenager
Greta Thunberg.
Thunberg claims she can see
CO2, which just happens
to be invisible, so the girl
is obviously a "mental case".
But Greta is cheered on by adults,
who now use children in their
climate change cult propaganda.
Children are being hurt by this
escalating, hysterical, and
false, climate change rhetoric.
In their minds, just being alive
means emitting CO2, which
contributes to the imagined
coming climate catastrophe.
I wonder if this climate hysteria
contributes to the high teenage
suicide rate ?
Extreme weather events can't
convincingly be attributed
to man made global warming,
even if you assume all
recent warming is man made,
which would be FAR MORE than
"over half", the wild guess claim
made by the UN's IPCC.
The biggest problem is the
career-saving silence
of many scientists
who know better.
For them, refuting the
climate change cult's
junk science would be easy,
but just as risky as reporting
they had seen a UFO
-- the result would be ridicule,
and the end of career
advancement, or even
the end of a long career.
The "answer" to climate
change junk science
is the separation of science
and government funding,
which only pays for "scientists"
who support climate alarmism.
Meanwhile, any claim about
climate change that warns of
bad news in the future,
is likely to be published,
will not be challenged by the
mainstream media,
and WILL be automatically
believed by the "trained parrots"
of the climate change cult.
We are currently living
in a very pleasant climate,
with few of the extremes
of rain, snow, heat, or cold,
that were more common
in earlier centuries.
Historically, the wettest
and stormiest times
occurred during the
colder spells, at odds
with the common claim
that extra warmth generates
extra energy for storms,
and a warmer atmosphere
holds more moisture.
Many extreme climate phenomena
are a manifestation of energy,
moving as heat, transported along
the latitudinal temperature gradient
between the tropics and the poles.
The steeper that gradient is,
( gradient = tropics - poles temperature differential ),
the more energy has to be moved
through it, and the more energy
is available to create weather
extremes.
Climate proxy studies
show extreme weather
was a lot more common
in the North Atlantic,
and Western Mediterranean,
during the Little Ice Age
( roughly 1300 to 1750 ).
Christopher Columbus had
one of his ships destroyed
by a Caribbean hurricane
on his first voyage in 1492.
Modern global warming
has caused a decrease
in extreme weather
since roughly 1750.
Costas et al. 2016,
in their figure 10,
show the result of
17 published studies
identifying the Little
Ice Age as one of the
stormiest periods
of the Late Holocene.
The claim that global warming
is going to increase extreme
weather is contrary to
evidence, and real science.
We should expect
that global warming
will DECREASE
extreme weather.
The only extreme weather
that should be expected
to increase with global warming
is the intensity of heat waves,
which has NOT happened,
and the amount of precipitation,
should increase, which would be
good news.
There are many scared people
out there, and not only leftists,
demanding that we
dismantle successful
economies, based on them
believing scary, fictional,
climate scare stories,
over the years.
Ye editor is a long-time atheist,
for about 60 years, starting
when I could first understand
the concept, so I could be wrong,
but ...
I believe Judeo-Christian tradition
is rooted in apocalyptic views,
so there must be a common
human desire ( that I lack )
to believe humans
are damaging the world.
I wonder how much
of this climate alarmism
can be explained by
the 'secular CO2 is evil
religion' taking the place
of traditional religions,
filling an almost universal
human need, in this
more secular world ?
Maybe the junk science
of falsely blaming
so many unrelated
weather events on
climate change,
is caused by having
too many scientists ?
They are running out of
real science to investigate,
so use junk science
to get media attention,
and government funding ?
Politicians and government
employees LOVE a crisis,
whether real or imaginary,
because people turn to
the government for help,
with any crisis.
The coming climate change
crisis is an imaginary crisis,
that had been promoted
with dignity and real science
starting in 1957.
But the real science morphed
into junk science by 1975,
when a coming global cooling
crisis was predicted by
a small subset of scientists,
who got their 15 minutes of fame.
Perhaps noticing how much
attention the forecasts of a
coming global cooling crisis
coming global cooling crisis
got, the majority of scientists
fearing a coming
global warming crisis,
fearing a coming
global warming crisis,
morphed from
calm, real science,
with many doubts
and uncertainties,
in 1975 ... and by 1988
there was hysterical
junk science,
where the future climate
was claimed to be known
with great certainty,
and high confidence.
And that's where we are today.
So, we've been waiting
for bad climate news
for 62 years,
starting in 1957,
or for 31 years,
starting in 1988,
depending on
which start point
you prefer.
Meanwhile,
the biggest climate
change so far,
is that Alaska has
warmer winter nights
... but that's good news !
So where is the
climate bad news
we are supposed
to be experiencing ?
Invisible ?
Falsely blaming every
severe weather event
on climate change,
is a clear sign
of desperation,
to keep the coming
climate crisis belief alive,
climate crisis belief alive,
NOT real science !