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Monday, June 17, 2019

Unusual Weather Events are falsely attributed to "Climate Change"

The primary effect of greenhouse
warming should be a reduction
in the temperature differential
between the tropics and the poles.

That has NOT happened 
in the Southern hemisphere, 
but HAS happened in 
the Northern Hemisphere.

In fact, Arctic warming,
and the smaller 
temperature differential 
between the Arctic and the
tropics, is decent evidence 
for greenhouse gas warming.

That reduced temperature
differential would be 
a very reasonable 
explanation for the 
long-term down trends of 
US extreme weather events, 
such as hurricanes and 
tornadoes.




















It's puzzling, and anti-science,
to blame man made CO2
for causing about
+0.6 degrees C.,
warming since 1940, 
without scientific proof.

And even more anti-science
to blame warming for any 
extreme weather events.

That blame starts with 
the assumption, not a fact,
that the mild global warming
since 1940 is attributable 
to man made CO2 emissions, 
with no scientific proof 
that attribution is correct.

There's no way to know if
the mild, intermittent warming 
since 1940, was natural climate
change, or man made climate 
change.

Merely asserting it's man made,  
and claiming a consensus 
of some subset of scientists, 
does not create truth.

But even if you insist on
believing that warming was
caused ONLY by man made
CO2, there is no 
convincing evidence
global warming 
has caused a change 
in US hurricane or
tornado activity, 
both of which are in 
long term down trends.

In addition, any expected 
man made change
in extreme weather events
would be very small, 
relative to expected 
natural variability.



No climate change signal 
has been detected in sea levels, 
from long term records
of tide gauges that are
mounted on stable surfaces.




Experts disagree 
on most aspects 
of climate change,
if you consider ALL
scientists, not just
climate modelers.  

If the air is a little warmer, 
we may EXPECT more rain.

If sea surface temperatures 
are a little warmer,
we may EXPECT the 
tropical hurricanes 
to be more intense. 

But the warming 
may be caused by
natural variability, 
or man made.

Since no one knows 
the cause of the warming,
other than a list of
'the usual suspects',
the cause is a wild guess.




As scientists are interviewed, 
following each hurricane, 
they get mass media attention 
only if they blame global warming.

They might get attention on
Fox News, maybe, if they refuted
the 'global warming caused the 
hurricane narrative', or at least
dismissed the 'global warming 
made the hurricane more intense
narrative'.



Scientists who try to prove 
climate change isn’t causing 
extreme weather, get character
attacked.

Scientist Roger Pielke Jr., at the
University of Colorado in Boulder,
used to do world-leading research 
on climate change and 
extreme weather. 

He found convincing evidence 
climate change was NOT leading 
to higher rates of weather-related 
damages worldwide, after he
adjusted for increasing 
population and wealth. 

Pielke then faced a vicious
smear campaign, backed by
the Obama Administration, and
leading Democrat congressmen.

Dr John Holdren ( Obama’s Director 
of Office of Science, Technology 
and Policy ) posted an attack
on the White House web page, 
against Mr. Pielke's findings 
on disasters, and climate change, 
which was both inappropriate,
and scientifically incorrect.

Under great pressure,
Pielke quit the field in 2015.




False arguments that a small 
amount of global warming 
would result in more intense 
hurricanes, got a lot of attention, 
after 2005's Hurricane Katrina.

That accelerated a climate cult
strategy to scare school children, 
and have them convince their parents.

The child activist movement,
unfortunately, is similar to 
events during the emergence 
of most fascist and communist
movements.

Recruitment of children 
into the “culture wars”
is discussed here:

The current poster child 
for this smarmy activity 
is Swedish teenager 
Greta Thunberg.  

Thunberg claims she can see
CO2, which just happens
to be invisible, so the girl
is obviously a "mental case".

But Greta is cheered on by adults, 
who now use children in their 
climate change cult propaganda.

Children are being hurt by this 
escalating, hysterical, and 
false, climate change rhetoric.

In their minds, just being alive 
means emitting CO2, which 
contributes to the imagined
coming climate catastrophe. 

I wonder if this climate hysteria
contributes to the high teenage 
suicide rate ?




Extreme weather events can't
convincingly be attributed 
to man made global warming, 
even if you assume all 
recent warming is man made,
which would be FAR MORE than
"over half", the wild guess claim
made by the UN's IPCC.




The biggest problem is the 
career-saving silence 
of many scientists 
who know better.

For them, refuting the 
climate change cult's
junk science would be easy,
but just as risky as reporting 
they had seen a UFO 
-- the result would be ridicule, 
and the end of career 
advancement, or even 
the end of a long career.

The "answer" to climate
change junk science
is the separation of science
and government funding, 
which only pays for "scientists"
who support climate alarmism.

Meanwhile, any claim about 
climate change that warns of 
bad news in the future,
is likely to be published, 
will not be challenged by the
mainstream media, 
and WILL be automatically 
believed by the "trained parrots" 
of the climate change cult.




We are currently living 
in a very pleasant climate, 
with few of the extremes 
of rain, snow, heat, or cold, 
that were more common 
in earlier centuries.

Historically, the wettest 
and stormiest times 
occurred during the 
colder spells, at odds 
with the common claim
that extra warmth generates 
extra energy for storms, 
and a warmer atmosphere 
holds more moisture.

Many extreme climate phenomena 
are a manifestation of energy,
moving as heat, transported along 
the latitudinal temperature gradient 
between the tropics and the poles. 

The steeper that gradient is,
( gradient = tropics - poles temperature differential ),
the more energy has to be moved 
through it, and the more energy 
is available to create weather 
extremes.

Climate proxy studies 
show extreme weather
was a lot more common 
in the North Atlantic, 
and Western Mediterranean, 
during the Little Ice Age
( roughly 1300 to 1750 ).

Christopher Columbus had 
one of his ships destroyed 
by a Caribbean hurricane 
on his first voyage in 1492.

Modern global warming 
has caused a decrease 
in extreme weather 
since roughly 1750.

Costas et al. 2016, 
in their figure 10, 
show the result of 
17 published studies 
identifying the Little
Ice Age as one of the 
stormiest periods 
of the Late Holocene.




The claim that global warming 
is going to increase extreme 
weather is contrary to 
evidence, and real science. 

We should expect 
that global warming 
will DECREASE
extreme weather.

The only extreme weather 
that should be expected 
to increase with global warming
is the intensity of heat waves,
which has NOT happened, 
and the amount of precipitation, 
should increase, which would be 
good news.




There are many scared people 
out there, and not only leftists,
demanding that we 
dismantle successful 
economies, based on them
believing scary, fictional, 
climate scare stories, 
over the years.




Ye editor is a long-time atheist,
for about 60 years, starting
when I could first understand 
the concept, so I could be wrong, 
but ...
I believe Judeo-Christian tradition 
is rooted in apocalyptic views, 
so there must be a common 
human desire ( that I lack )
to believe humans 
are damaging the world.

I wonder how much 
of this climate alarmism 
can be explained by 
the 'secular CO2 is evil 
religion' taking the place 
of traditional religions, 
filling an almost universal
human need, in this 
more secular world ?




Maybe the junk science
of falsely blaming 
so many unrelated
weather events on 
climate change,
is caused by having 
too many scientists ?

They are running out of 
real science to investigate,
so use junk science
to get media attention, 
and government funding ?

Politicians and government
employees LOVE a crisis,
whether real or imaginary,
because people turn to 
the government for help, 
with any crisis.

The coming climate change
crisis is an imaginary crisis,
that had been promoted 
with dignity and real science
starting in 1957.

But the real science morphed 
into junk science by 1975, 
when a coming global cooling 
crisis was predicted by 
a small subset of scientists, 
who got their 15 minutes of fame.

Perhaps noticing how much 
attention the forecasts of a
coming global cooling crisis
got, the majority of scientists 
fearing a coming 
global warming crisis,
morphed from 
calm, real science,
with many doubts 
and uncertainties,
in 1975 ... and by 1988
there was hysterical 
junk science,
where the future climate 
was claimed to be known
with great certainty, 
and high confidence.

And that's where we are today.



So, we've been waiting 
for bad climate news 
for 62 years, 
starting in 1957,
or for 31 years, 
starting in 1988,
depending on 
which start point 
you prefer.

Meanwhile,
the biggest climate 
change so far,
is that Alaska has 
warmer winter nights
... but that's good news !

So where is the 
climate bad news
we are supposed 
to be experiencing ?

Invisible ?

Falsely blaming every 
severe weather event 
on climate change, 
is a clear sign 
of desperation, 
to keep the coming 
climate crisis belief alive,
NOT real science !