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Saturday, July 20, 2019

Are Newport, Rhode Island Mansions Threatened By Sea Level Rise ?






Note: 
Visiting the Newport RI mansions 
was one of the highlights of our 
two-week vacation, driving 
throughout New England, 
probably back in the 1990s.


From The New York Times:
"We Cannot Save Everything’: 
A Historic Neighborhood 
Confronts Rising Seas"
by Cornelia Dean

“Climate change is forcing 
experts to re-imagine the future
of historic preservation here.”

“Rising seas have left 
preservationists wondering how, 
or even whether, to save some 
Colonial-era homes here”.

“The Point, [ in Newport ] 
a waterfront neighborhood 
here, is one of the largest, 
best preserved, 
and most important 
Colonial-era communities 
in the United States." 

"Its grid of 18th-century streets 
contains scores of houses built 
before the American Revolution, 
and dozens more that 
are almost as old.”

“The Point sits only a few feet 
above sea level, and because 
of climate change, 
the ocean is rising." 

"So people have 
been thinking again 
about how to preserve 
the neighborhood.”

Not mentioned:
Absolute sea level rise 
has been happening 
for at least two centuries.

In addition, there is
land subsidence (settling)
as centuries-old landfill 
gradually washes out 
from under 
the neighborhood,
with each tide cycle.

That's been happening 
since the fill was dumped 
into the harbor to create 
the land to built sea front
houses on !

The rising sea level problem 
has been happening
since the colder climate 
of the Little Ice Age 
( coldest in the late 1600s ).

The U.S. Commerce Department's 
NOAA says, 
“the absolute global 
sea level rise is believed to be 
1.7 +/- 0.3 millimeters/year 
during the 20th century.”  

2 mm a year for 100 years 
= 200 mm = 7.8 inches.  

I call this 6 to 10 inches 
per century.

Others say 8 to 12 inches 
per century.




The Newport, RI linear trend 
of absolute sea level rise 
( the sea surface versus 
the center of the Earth ) 
is literally a straight line:
























Satellite measured 
sea level rise 
is “2.9 ± 0.4mm/year” :












Satellite estimates are
completely different 
than tide gauges, with 
no logical explanation
of that discrepancy, 
or even how a satellite
could measure 
a few millimeters
of sea level rise 
each year.

The difference 
between tide gauge
and satellite data 
would be about 
4 inches per century. 

“8 to 12 inches” per century 
covers both the tide gauge 
and satellite calculations
for global sea level rise.




The warming after the
Little Ice Age has caused
the seas to rise at a steady rate
for at least 170 years, 
at about +1.5 to +3mm per year.



In the past 100 years, 
Newport's relative 
sea level rose 9 inches,
based on the Newport
tide gauge.

That tide gauge 
sits on landfill --
rocks and soil 
dumped in the water,
reinforced with large 
blocks of concrete.  

There's no way 
to know how much 
that fill is settling 
(subsiding), so the 
sea level rise numbers 
from that tide gauge
very likely include some
land settling.

Newport does have a 
Continuously Operating GPS 
Reference Station (CORS),
but not at the tide gauge:










But it's up on a hill, 
attached to bedrock:
at the US Naval War College.

That GPS unit has recently 
measured land subsidence
of about 2.6mm/year. 



The Newport tide gauge 
is attached to
a concrete pier 
built on landfill, 
used to create 
the yacht harbor.

The tide gauge pier, 
built on landfill, 
can also be assumed 
to be subsiding, 
just like the nearby
GPS station,
built on bedrock, 
is subsiding.




 “The Point" neighborhood
 was settled in the 17th century 
by Quakers:

























It used to be a little spit of land 
protruding into Newport Harbor,

Landfill was used to create 
a neighborhood 
of colonial homes,
later called "The Point".

Everybody wanted a house 
on the waterfront, so they filled
a marsh, extending the land 
into the harbor to create 
a neighborhood, 
described by the NY Times as:
“The Point sits 
only a few feet 
above sea level”. 

Tidal wash has affected 
the fill under The Point 
for the past 200 years.

Total sea level rise
and land settling 
could have added 
up to 20 inches,
over those 200 years.





Most of the historic houses 
are just  a few feet 
above sea level,
with basements many feet 
below sea level at high tide.

That was true in 1938 too.

The Highest Recorded 
Tide Level at Newport 
was on September 21, 1938,
about ten feet above 
todays Mean High Water. 




Newport is claimed to be 
threatened by 
climate change 
driven sea level rise.

Newport's "The Point" 
also has landfill settling.

That was true in 1938 too.

The New York Times would 
never mention both problems
faced by homes in "The Point".


And they would never point out
that both problems started 
long before the rapid rise
of greenhouse gas emissions
( after the 1930s Depression ended ) !


The New York Times 
prefers to deceive 
their gullible readers,
rather than telling them
the whole story, 
which you've just read.