Our planet has had
natural climate change
for 4.5 billion years.
Climate alarmists would
have us believe natural
causes of climate change
became unimportant "noise"
during the 20th century,
for which their
"scientific proof" is:
"Because we say so"?
There were times
with no ice on the poles,
and other times with
ice glaciers covering
Canada, Chicago and
Detroit ( which was just
20,000 years ago ).
That's a large range
of climate variations
from natural causes.
The globally averaged
temperature is claimed
to be warmer by about
+1.0 degrees C,
or +1.5°F, from 1880
to today.
I don't accept those numbers.
I'm confident the global average
has changed, because it always
does.
The measurements were haphazard,
with most thermometers in the 1800's
reading low, almost no Southern
Hemisphere data before 1920,
far too few Southern Hemisphere
data before 1950, and far from
global coverage, even today.
I can accept the global average
temperature increased since 1880,
since there's no evidence
that it decreased.
But, with honest margins of error,
not the ridiculous +/- 0.1 degrees C.
that is claimed, the global average
temperature change since 1880
could range from unchanged,
to +2 degrees C.
The rising temperature before 1950
was considered natural climate
change.
The UN's IPCC
claims "over 50%"
of the warming
after 1950 was
man made -- in fact,
there is no evidence
any of that warming
was man made
-- it could have been
100% natural.
Outside the IPCC,
most climate
alarmists claim
CO2 levels
control the climate,
implying "100%",
not just "over 50%".
THE ARCTIC
Arctic temperatures
after 1990 rose two
to three times faster
than the global average.
Is that a climate crisis ?
Well, rapid Arctic warming
has happened often before,
and naturally.
During the last Ice Age,
when CO2 concentrations
were just half of today’s,
25 abrupt warming events
happened.
Arctic temperatures rose 9°F,
and sometimes as much as 14°F
in just 40 years.
These rapid
warming episodes
are now called
Dansgaard–Oeschger
events (D-O events)
to honor researchers
who detected them
in Greenland’s ice cores.
Other than short term
D-O events, and the
temporary effects of
sun blocking volcanoes,
there's no evidence of
temperature changes
averaging over plus or
minus one degree C.
per century
What could cause
such abrupt D-O event
warming ?
Greenhouse gases
or solar energy changes
could NOT cause
such rapid warming.
The best explanation
is heat ventilating
from the Arctic Ocean,
rapidly warming
the nearby air.
Tropical Atlantic waters
experience intense heating
and evaporation.
This results in warm salty water
that is relatively dense.
The Gulf Stream, and branching
currents, transport that warm water
northward.
Because the water is salty,
and dense, it sinks below colder
and fresher surface waters
as it approaches
the Arctic Ocean.
As a result, there's a layer of
warm Atlantic water stored
at depths between
300 and 2,700 feet
below the Arctic Ocean’s
surface, holding enough heat,
in total, to melt the Arctic
sea ice cover
several times over.
Sea ice, and a layer of cold
fresh water normally block
subsurface heat
from ventilating
to the atmosphere.
If warm Atlantic Waters
eventually melt the
overlying ice cover,
the heat can vent.
Or changes in
Arctic wind direction
can blow sea ice
out into the Atlantic.
Without insulating ice,
a burst of heat
ventilates from
the ocean, and warms
the atmosphere.
Recently, anthropologists
studying past Arctic cultures
found the pre-Dorsett culture
periodically abandoned,
then recolonized.
the Arctic coast,
as changes in sea ice
affected temperatures.
Such changes alternated
over several hundred years.
Is the Arctic still experiencing
similar cyclical warming?
Dramatic Arctic warming
during the 1920s and 1930s
corresponded with increased
intrusions of warm water,
accompanied by Atlantic
fish species normally found
further south.
The 1922 newspaper article below
reveals warming of the Arctic
was so dramatic it raised concerns
the frigid Arctic would soon be
converted to a warmer
“temperate zone”.
reveals warming of the Arctic
was so dramatic it raised concerns
the frigid Arctic would soon be
converted to a warmer
“temperate zone”.
Warm water inflows began retreating
around 1950, along with the Atlantic fish.
Sea ice increased.
Such cycles have been recorded
in fishery data for hundreds of years.
If the loss of Arctic sea ice,
and warmer temperatures,
are due to rising CO2,
we should be approaching
a total loss of Arctic sea ice.
But the Arctic sea ice extent
has actually been steady
for the past 13 years !
if natural oscillations are controlling
intrusions of warm Atlantic waters,
Arctic sea ice will soon rebound.
Because natural climate cycles
predict Arctic temperatures
will NOT experience
further warming,
or accelerated warming.
Based on earlier
20th century patterns,
such as when lost sea ice
rebounded in the 1960s
and 70s, Arctic sea ice
should begin rebounding
in the future.