CO2 emissions in China
may peak up to a decade
earlier than the nation
had pledged under the
Paris Agreement (2030),
according to a new study.
With heavy reliance on coal,
China is responsible for more
CO2 emissions than the US
and the EU combined.
An analysis in Nature Sustainability,
claims a team of researchers
has shown that as China’s
burgeoning cities
become wealthier,
their per capita emissions
begin to drop.
This trend could trigger
an overall dip in CO2 levels.
The current target,
per the Paris Agreement,
is CO2 emissions
peaking by 2030,
but they may peak
between 2021 and 2025.
I believe that study
is wishful thinking.
China’s build up
of heavy industry
over the past
two decades
has been huge.
The Communist Party
would never shut that down
to cut CO2 emissions.
A Reuters article
notes that China is
” reducing the share of coal”:
That's true:
China's electricity from coal
was 68.5% in 2012.
China's electricity from coal
was down to 59% in 2018
But, on the other hand:
-- 59% is huge.
-- China's coal consumption
is just barely going down
since 2012, when it was
1927 Mtoe, vs. 1906 Mtoe
last year, according to BP.
Concerning China's Future:
-- China’s energy regulator
approved building
141 million tonnes
of new annual coal
production capacity
from January to June 2019.
Only 25 million tonnes
was approved in all
12 months of 2018.
Projects included new mines
in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang,
Shanxi and Shaanxi,
according to National
Energy Administration
(NEA) documents.