The coming climate
change catastrophe
is a 100-year prediction
made by people who
have no idea what the
climate will be like
in the next year.
Real science does not
make consistently wrong
wild guesses about the
future climate.
But real science IS working
on predicting local weather
more than a few days
in advance.
ECMWF is the
European Centre
for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts.
ECMWF’s
temperature
forecasts are for
2-meters up
(from the ground).
Below are forecasts
for three locations
where national records
were broken.
These records are:
(1)
46.0°C
in the French village of Vérargues
on June 28;
(2)
42.6°C
in the town of Lingen in Germany
on 25 July; and
(3)
38.7° C.
in the city of Cambridge in the UK
on July 25.
The July 2019
heatwave also set
new temperature
records in Belgium,
Luxembourg and
the Netherlands.
Key findings are that:
(A)
Warmer than average
temperatures
were predicted
between 10 and
12 days ahead
of the three events,
although a wide
range was predicted
(B)
Highly unusual
temperatures
were predicted
between 6 and
7 days ahead,
(C)
A few days in advance,
the predicted temperatures
were a few degrees lower
than the observed records.
The forecasts were NOT
for specific weather stations
where the temperature records
were broken.
The forecasts do cover
the world in a grid pattern.
ECMWF produces
ensemble forecasts (ENS)
with a grid spacing of 18 km,
and a high-resolution
forecast (HRES) with
a grid spacing of 9 km.
Predictions were for
average conditions
in the grid box,
as a whole.
ECMWF forecasts,
in many parts of Europe,
tend to under predict
maximum temperatures
in the summer.
