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Thursday, September 26, 2019

The slowdown of global warming in the past dozen years should have been expected

I hope we never have 
a real global crisis 
to deal with. 

The fake climate change 
crisis has caused 
enough trouble.

The fake climate change 
crisis -- which is 
always "coming", 
but never arrives -- 
has shown us that 
smarmy leftists 
can make people 
hysterical about 
the future climate, 
by using nothing more 
than wild guess 
predictions of the 
future climate, 
that have been 
consistently wrong 
since the 1970s.


The official atmospheric 
concentration of CO2, 
measured at Mount 
Mauna Loa in Hawaii, 
goes back to 1958. 

CO2 levels from 
before 1958 are 
very rough,
based only on 
air bubbles in 
Antarctica ice cores. 

It's easy to measure 
the air bubbles -- it's hard 
to know exactly what 
year they formed.

Surface temperature data 
are far from being global, 
especially before 1950.

There's lots of wild guessing
for areas with no thermometers,
and areas with missing data.

The wild guessing
is called "infilling",
but any guess, 
with no data,
that can never 
be verified, 
is really 
a wild guess.

Weather satellite 
temperature data
are close to being global, 
are measured in the 
troposphere, where the 
relevant greenhouse effect 
occurs, and also measured
in a consistent environment.

The chart below shows 
Mauna Loa CO2 (green) 
and UAH satellite (red) 
global average 
temperature data:








The temperatures
fluctuates a lot, 
but generally stay 
within a 0.6 degrees C. 
range, except for 
two brief heat peaks 
in 1998, and 2015 / 2016.

Those years included 
large Pacific Ocean 
heat releases  
( aka "El Nino's" ) 
that are unrelated 
to greenhouse gases 
in the atmosphere
 ... yet are included 
in the global warming 
data blamed on CO2.

The trend of CO2 
is much steeper than 
the temperature trend. 

But after about 2005,
the UAH temperature 
trend line flattens out, 
relative to the CO2 
trend line.

That effect should 
have been expected.

The greenhouse 
gas theory is that 
each increase 
of the CO2 level, 
let's say by +10%, 
will cause less 
global warming
than the prior 
+10% increase.

Even climate alarmists 
would agree with that.



What the alarmists do 
to create a scary prediction, 
is to claim that CO2-caused 
global warming increases 
the amount of water vapor 
in the atmosphere, which 
then triples the global 
warming effect of CO2 alone.

There's no proof that 
water vapor amplification 
exists in real life.

If water vapor amplification
did exist in real life, 
there would have been 
runaway global warming
billions of years ago !

Because there was
much more CO2 
in the atmosphere 
for most of Earth's 
4.5 billion years, 
up to 10x higher
than the current 
CO2 level, yet
there's no evidence 
of runaway warming
in the past.

The CO2 no longer
in the atmosphere,
is sequestered 
underground as
carbon in oil, 
natural gas 
and coal 
-- burning those 
fossil fuels 
"recycles" carbon, 
from underground, 
back into the 
atmosphere, 
as CO2.