There is no possibility
of anything like a
“new energy economy”,
with near zero CO2
emissions, in the
foreseeable future.
Note to politicians
-- transforming the
energy economy
has nothing to do
with putting a man
on the moon.
Electric vehicles
that use use
Chinese batteries,
will create more
carbon-dioxide
than saved
by replacing
gasoline-burning
engines for the
same size cars.
Solar energy physics:
The Shockley-Queisser limit
is a maximum conversion
of about 33% of photons into
electrons; commercial solar
cells today are at 26%.
Wind energy physics:
The Betz limit is a
maximum capture of
60% of energy in
moving air; commercial
turbines achieve 45%.
60 pounds of batteries
are needed to store
the energy equivalent
of one pound
of hydrocarbons.
At least 100 pounds
of materials are mined,
moved and processed
for every pound
of battery fabricated.
Storing the energy
equivalent of
one barrel of oil,
which weighs
300 pounds,
requires
20,000 pounds
of Tesla batteries
($200,000 worth).
The energy equivalent
of the aviation fuel
used by an aircraft
flying to Asia would
require $60 million worth
of Tesla-type batteries
weighing five times more
than that aircraft.
A battery-backed e
lectric grid
and all electric car
world require gigatons
of earth mining
to access lithium,
opper, nickel, graphite,
rare earths, cobalt, etc.,
using millions of tons
of oil and coal ,
both in the mining,
and to fabricate metals
and concrete.
China dominates
global battery
production,
with its grid
70% coal-fueled.
Fossil fuels supply
over 80%
of world energy.
A 100x growth in the
number of electric vehicles
to 400 million on the roads
by 2040 would displace
only 5% of global
oil demand.
Renewable energy
would have to expand
90-fold to replace
global hydrocarbons
in two decades.
Since 1995, total world
energy use rose by 50%.
Since 1995, aviation fuel
use per passenger-mile
is down 70%,
air traffic rose
more than 10-fold,
and global aviation
fuel use rose over 50%
To make enough batteries
to store two day's worth
of U.S. electricity demand
would require 1,000 years
of production by the
Tesla Gigafactory
(world’s biggest battery factory).
It costs about the same
to build one shale well
or two wind turbines:
the latter, combined,
produces 0.7 barrels of oil
(equivalent energy) per hour,
a shale rig averages
10 barrels of oil per hour.
It costs less than $0.50
to store a barrel of oil,
or its equivalent
in natural gas,
but it costs $200 to store
the equivalent energy
of a barrel of oil,
in batteries.
Cost models for wind
and solar assume,
they produce electricity
41% and 29% of the time,
but real-world data reveal
up to ten percentage points
lower.
Over 90% of
America’s electricity,
and 99% of the power
used in transportation,
comes from sources
that supply energy
at any time.
Wind and solar machines
produce energy an average
of only 25% to 30%
of the time.