"I will ban fracking—everywhere."
— Elizabeth Warren
Holmes Lybrand,
“Fact Check: Some Democratic Presidential
Candidates Want to Ban Fracking. Could They?”
CNN, Sept. 16, 2019
"Any proposal
to avert the
climate crisis
must include
a full fracking ban
on public and
private lands."
— Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders,
Twitter,
Sept. 4, 2019
"I favor a ban on new fracking
and a rapid end to existing fracking."
— Pete Buttigieg
“Where 2020 Democrats
Stand on Climate Change,”
Washington Post, Nov. 20, 2019
From the same article,
Tulsi Gabbard
was quoted as saying:
“Yes, I support a ban on all
hydraulic fracking operations".
FRACKING REALITY
APPARENTLY
UNKNOWN TO
DEMOCRATS:
SUMMARY:
A ban on
U.S. fracking
would eliminate
7% of world oil and
17% of world gas.
Prices would
obviously
go up a lot.
Rather than
wild guessing
how much,
I'll summarize
previous
experiences:
In 1973,
Saudi Arabia
implemented
an oil embargo
and took 4 mmbd
off world markets
(approximately 7% of
the total at that time.)
World oil prices
jumped 400%
and triggered a
global recession.
in 1979, the Iranian
revolution took 5%
of oil off world markets.
Prices spiked
over 200%,
triggering another
global recession.
DETAILS:
"Fracking" is
the extraction
of oil and gas
through the
use of
horizontal drilling
and hydraulic
fracturing.
Fracking pushed
the United States
into leadership
of the world’s
energy markets.
American
fracking
technology
has unlocked
“unconventional”
shale fields.
leading to
America’s
reemergence
as a global
oil exporter.
Since 2007,
fracking doubled
U.S. oil production,
and increased U.S.
gas production
by about 60%.
Instead of being
a major importer,
America is
becoming an
exporter of oil.
U.S. net oil imports
have collapsed from
12 mmbd a decade ago,
to nearly zero now.
Exports of crude oil
have soared from zero
to 3 mmbd, following
the 2015 legislation
that revoked the ban
on U.S. petroleum
exports.
The U.S.
is expected
to account for
70% of the
global growth
of the oil supply
over the next
five years ...
and to supply
at least half
the world’s
new demands
for natural gas.
If the U.S. imposed
a fracking ban,
we would have to
double the quantity
of coal burned,
and import up to
one million barrels
of oil per day,
for dual-fueled
power plants,
that would
lose access
to natural gas.
To keep
the lights on,
electric utilities
would need to
quickly replace
natural gas
(currently 35%
of all electricity)
with coal.
This would
mean burning
an additional
400 million tons
of coal a year.
That would
increase
carbon-dioxide
emissions,
by 300%
more than
the emissions
eliminated
by all the
wind and solar
capacity in the
United States.
Oil and gas
together
supply 54% of
global energy
That's almost
identical to
the 55% share
a decade ago.
IEA forecasts,
using excessively
bullish expectations
for wind and solar
production—
53% of all global needs
still met by oil and
natural gas in 2040,
a minuscule decline
from today’s 54%.
Oil powers 98%
of all global
transportation.
The entire world
would have to increase
global wind and solar
installations by 500%
to replace the energy
lost from a U.S.
fracking ban
— not that you
could power cars
and trucks with
wind and sun !
A ban on U.S.
fracking would
end U.S. exports,
cause U.S. imports
to soar, and increase
the trade deficit
by hundreds of
billions of dollars.
Losing the share
of new electricity
generation,
now fueled
by natural gas,
produced by fracking,
would push utilities
to increase the use
of existing underutilized
power plants, which are
mainly coal-fired.
America’s shale
oil production
could not be
replaced quickly
by alternatives,
at any price,
regardless of
climate-change
motivations.
Politically popular
wind and solar power
have become
far less expensive
and have enjoyed
massive
global subsidies,
but together
they still provide
only 1.8% of
global energy.
The 5 million
electric vehicles
in the world
now displace
only 0.1%
of global
oil use.
Replacing the quantity
of energy produced
by fracking in the U.S.
shale fields would require
(in energy-equivalent terms)
expanding all of America’s
solar and wind production
by 2,000% more than what
has been added
in the past decade.
And that miracle
wouldn’t help the 99%
of Americans driving
oil-fueled cars.