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Monday, February 3, 2020

Can German Industrial Output Survive Without Coal ?

SUMMARY:
Germany is phasing out 
nuclear power, which has 
no CO2 emissions.

Germany is 
also a rare coal-
producing nation 
that takes it's 
CO2 emission 
commitments 
very seriously.

It leads the 
European Union 
drive to decrease 
CO2 emissions. 

The planned 2038 
phase out of hard coal 
(all imported) use 
may be feasible.

But replacing 
German lignite 
will be tough -- 
it's cheap, and 
located next to 
large urban areas.

Lignite, 
often referred to 
as brown coal, 
is a soft, brown, 
combustible, 
sedimentary rock 
formed from 
naturally compressed 
peat. It is considered 
the lowest rank of coal 
due to its relatively low 
heat content.

The nation’s 
industrial output 
will be less
competitive 
and will 
be smaller 
without having 
inexpensive, 
consistent nuclear 
power (from existing 
plants), coal power 
and lignite power.

Throughout
the world,
when production 
is not cut by any
government 
policies, 
coal producers 
simply extract 
as much coal 
as possible. 

Germany has 
large reserves 
of coal, lignite 
in particular. 

Germany is the 
world’s largest 
producer of lignite.

Lignite is burned for
22% of the nation’s 
gross electricity output. 

Lignite production 
is done by 
extraction from 
open-cast pits, and 
is more CO2 intensive 
than hard coal.

Lignite remains 
economically 
competitive. 

But Germany’s hard coal 
production went downhill 
after the government 
ended its subsidy. 

The last German 
hard coal mine 
closed in 
December 2018, 
ending a 200-year 
history of the 
Ruhr Region.

But Germany 
continues to use 
hard coal, 
imported primarily 
from Russia, Canada 
and the United States.

Based on 
monthly statistics
in the past three years, 
53% of all imported 
hard coal came in 
from Russia.

The German 
steel sector 
consumes 
almost 40%.

Hard coal is used 
for around 12% 
of electric power 
generation.


Hard coal is 
economically 
unviable, and 
underutilized 
( only 6GW of the 
existing 20GW 
hard coal power 
plant capacity 
was used in 2019 ) .

For 2019, both lignite 
and hard coal usage 
dropped a whopping 
20% year-on-year, 
from mandatory 
carbon emissions 
prices, renewables 
being prioritized 
for grid access, 
and a weak German
manufacturing sector.

For Germany, in 2019:
Coal usage dropped 
by -20.5 million tons 
of coal equivalent (mtce).

Renewables usage rose 
by +3 million tons mtce.

Power from renewables 
grew by only 3% in 2019. 

Natural gas usage
increased by +4 mtce.