Germany’s
Real GDP
grew by only
+0.6% in 2019,
+1.5% in 2018, and
+2.2% in 2017.
New European Union
Auto Emissions Rules:
The average new car
registered in the EU
must not emit
more than 95 grams
of CO2 per kilometer,
That requires
fuel consumption
of around 4.1 liters
of gasoline,
or 3.6 liters
of diesel fuel
per 100 kilometers.
( That’s 1.1 gallons
of gasoline per 62.2 miles,
or 60 miles per gallon ! )
60 miles per gallon !!!
Manufacturers can sell
some vehicled with
more "pollution",
offset by low or
zero emission models,
to avoid large fines.
Volkmar Dennernew,
CEO of Bosch,
a major automotive
supplier, said,
“EU emission rules
mean the end of the
classic internal combustion
engine with corresponding
effects on employment
in the companies concerned.”
He announced 3,500 job cuts.
McKinsey and Company
predicted that 2.2 million EVs
must be sold in Germany
in 2021 to meet CO2 targets.
No more than 50,000
were sold in 2019
Going from
50,000 in 2019,
to 2.2 million
EVs in 2021,
is VERY unlikely.
Even if
2.2 million
EVs could be
manufactured,
would Germans
want to buy
anywhere close
to 2.2 million ?
Germany employs
840,000 people in
auto manufacturing,
of which about
200,000 people
build power trains.
Electric vehicle
power trains
are much simpler,
and would require
far fewer than
200,000 people.
In 2018, German
auto manufacturers
sold 3.5 million vehicles
in Germany, and another
1.4 million in the U.S.
-- 500,000 sold
in the U.S.
were imported
from Germany.
In 2018, about 25%
of made in Germany
automobiles were sold
in the United States.
People in the U.S.
don't have much
interest in buying
EVs.
We do want German
internal combustion
engine vehicles.
Making those AND
EVs in Germany
Making those AND
EVs in Germany
would cause
a big cost and
complexity penalty
for auto manufacturing
for auto manufacturing
within Germany.