Germany is
fighting the physics of
an unreliable, expensive,
intermittent source
of energy.
A higher percentage
of renewables equals
a higher percentage
of problems.
Germany generates
over 35% of its annual
electricity consumption
from wind and
solar sources.
Over 30 000 wind turbines,
with a total installed capacity
of nearly 60 GW.
About 1.7 million solar power
( photovoltaic ) installations,
with an installed capacity
of 46 GW.
Impressed ?
Now consider reality:
Most of the time
the actual amount
of electricity produced
is only a fraction
of the installed
maximum capacity.
On “bad days” ,
nearly zero.
In 2016 there were 52 nights
with no sunlight and almost
no wind blowing in Germany.
No sun + no wind = no good !
The average
electricity output
of German
wind and solar
energy installations
amounts to only
about 17% of the
installed maximum
capacity.
On “bad days”
backup sources
must be
able to supply
up to 100% of the
nation’s electricity
demand.
Much better
would be to limit
wind and solar
to a relative
minimum.
Which was
a world-wide
practice
before the
recent
huge buildup
of renewable
energy capacity.
The most efficient
available solution
for storing excess
electric power
is to use it to pump
water against gravity
into a reservoir.
When electricity
is needed,
it is produced
by letting water
flow down again
going through a
turbine generator.
In this process about
25% of the energy
is lost.
These installations
use up a large amount
of land area, and are
expensive.
A 2014 study by the
Bavarian Ministry
of Energy came to
the conclusion that
pump storage plants
were not an
economically
viable solution.
Germany’s electricity
storage capacity
is less than 2% of
total electricity output.
With fluctuating wind
and solar generators,
Germany is forced
to rely on:
(1)
CO2-spouting coal and
natural gas power plants;
(2)
A few remaining nuclear plants,
which it plans to shut down by 2022; and
(3)
importing electricity from
other European nations.
Most of the imports
come from France,
where 75%
of electricity
is produced
by nuclear plants.
And from Sweden,
where 40% is
nuclear-produced.
On “bad days”
Germany could
not survive without
a piece of this
"dreaded"
nuclear energy.
On “good days”
Germany floods
the rest of Europe
with excess power
from its wind and
solar installations,
sold at really low,
or even negative,
prices.
Germany is still
far from being able
to close down its
coal and natural gas
power plants.
The German Energy
Agency (DENA)
published a
long-term scenario
for electricity production
in Germany, based on
the assumption that
so-called renewable
sources should account
for 80% of total
electricity consumption
by the year 2050.
DENA concluded to insure
a stable electricity supply,
Germany would still need
to maintain 61 gigawatts
of conventional power
plant capacity “in reserve”
and for a remaining portion
of base-load production.
Electricity storage systems
would provide only 9%
of reserve capacity in 2050.
Despite the growth of renewables,
conventional power capacity
could only be reduced by 14%
up to 2030 and by a maximum
of 37% by 2050.
Only petroleum (heating oil)
and natural gas would be
realistic fuels for backup power.
Natural gas generates
about 50% less CO2
per kWh of electricity
than coal or petroleum
-powered plants.
Most of the time
backup plants
would operate at
only a fraction
of their
installed capacity,
with many even
standing still
on “good days.”
That’s not an efficient
way to utilize equipment,
infrastructure and
manpower –
and not very attractive
for investors.
Also far from the
green dream
of a CO2-free
energy system.
Preserving the stability
of Germany’s electricity
grid while integrating
tens of thousands of
fluctuating energy
sources that are
distributed over
the entire country
has been a major
technical challenge.
It means the construction
of thousands of kilometers
of new high-voltage lines,
including four projected
long-distance transmission
lines which are needed
to move electricity
from the windy north
to the industrial west
and south of the country.
This adds to the
(systemic) costs
of supplying
the country
with electricity.
There is also a debate
concerning the future
stability of the German
electricity grid.
Resistance has been
growing inside Germany,
as local environmental
groups and citizens’
initiatives mobilize
to block construction
of wind turbines,
transmission lines,
pump power stations
and other renewable
energy projects.
People don’t want to live
near wind turbines,
because of unpleasant
noise and possibly
dangerous infrasound
emissions, disturbing
optical effects,
reports of fires,
broken-off
turbine blades
flying through the air,
ice throws, etc.
And dead birds.
There is strong
political pressure
to increase the legal
set back minimum
for the distance
between wind turbines
and houses to 1
or even 1.5 kilometers,
which would drastically
reduce the availability
of construction sites.
Protests and lawsuits
have brought
the construction of
new wind turbines
in Germany to
a near-standstill.
Solar energy has
much less resistance,
because only a few
large solar farms
have been built
in the country.
Most of the present
capacity comes from
roof-mounted solar cells,
especially on private
houses, where they
have become
quite popular.
The big problem
is how to store
the electricity,
which is generated
only during daylight
hours and fluctuates
according to
the cloud cover.
So far relatively few
house owners have been
willing to pay for batteries
and other storage devices.
Instead, excess electricity
is taken up by the grid
at a subsidized price.
Projects
for pump storage
stations, and for
new transmission lines
have met with intense
public resistance.
If Germans
really want
to be CO2-free,
then the only
available option
is nuclear energy
... and they have
rejected that option !