NOTE:
Clouds are a very
important factor
in the climate system.
But they are also
a great mystery
in climate models.
The role of clouds,
and convection,
in the climate system
are currently
rough assumptions
in theoretical models.
The same
cimate models
that grossly
over predict
global warming.
Theoretical
climate models
that make wrong
predictions are
not real science.
Real science
requires the
theoretical
models to be
verified with
measurements,
( observational data )
And they should
be able to make
reasonably
accurate
predictions.
Which means
current climate
models are
failed prototype
models with
minimal
predictive
ability.
Improving the
models must start
with collecting
a lot more data
on the dynamics
of atmospheric and
oceanic conditions,
in which clouds
form and dissipate.
Collecting needed
data finally started
in January 2020.
Climate models
over the past
few decades
claim a decrease
in cloud cover in the
trade-wind region,
caused by CO2
related warming,
allegedly leads to
a further increase
in global warming,
from having
more water vapor
in the atmosphere
More water vapor
allegedly triples
the alleged
global warming
from the CO2
increase alone.
This water vapor
'tripling theory'
is referred to
as a water vapor
positive feedback
effect.
A positive feedback
would mean that
global warming
would never stop
-- we should get
runaway warming !
If you do NOT assume
a positive feedback,
the global warming
predictions would be
about one-third the
warming rate of the
current predictions.
Surprise, surprise:
The ACTUAL
global warming
IS roughly one third
of the warming rate
that has been predicted
by the climate models
for many decades,
because they assume
that the alleged
water vapor
positive feedback
'tripler' is a fact.
All the models include
that theoretical positive
feedback effect, except
for one Russian model,
which, as a result,
makes decent global
average temperature
predictions
( of course the climate alarmists
ignore that model, because the
predictions are not scary enough )
Actually, the truth is
that climate alarmists
deliberately ignore
ALL contrary evidence
of a coming climate crisis.
They deliberately
ignore over 60 years
of wrong pedictions of
a coming climate crisis !
The water vapor
positive feedback
theory obviously
makes no sense.
The theory forces
the climate model
temperature predictions
to be grossly inaccurate !
And the theory has never
been observed to happen
in Earth's climate history !
Current atmospheric
CO2 levels are unusually
low, compared with
our planet's history.
And there's no evidence
in climate history
that much higher
CO2 levels EVER caused
the positive feedback of
a runaway global warming.
Not even with CO2 levels
up to ten times higher
than today.
In fact, not at any time
in the past 4.5 billion
years !
If runaway warming
had ever happened,
there would eventually be
no life left on this planet.
EUREC4A PROJECT:
This German-French
scientific initiative
is intended to collect
cloud related data,
and involves
over 40 partners.
It will be the world's
largest study to date
of low-level clouds and
their local interactions
with the atmosphere
and ocean.
The goal is to test
the role of clouds
and convection
in climate change.
It is being conducted by:
(1)
The Max Planck Institute
for Meteorology (MPI-M)
in Hamburg, and
(2)
The Laboratoire
de Meteorologie
Dynamique
(LMD) in Paris.
It will build on
decades of
collaboration
with the
Caribbean Institute
for Meteorology
and Hydrology.
( CIMH )
A six-week-long
field campaign
began on
January 20, 2020.
The study includes
comprehensive
measurements
in the atmosphere
and ocean.
But ...
There is no way
to know if the study
will answer many
of the unanswered
questions, about
the many causes
of climate change.
( almost every question
still needs an answer ! ).
The good news:
Cloud data
could be useful
to improve
climate model
predictions.
The bad news:
There are good
reasons to
believe that
climate models
won't be changed.
We already know
that that satellite
temperature
data collection
in the troposphere
-- since 1979 --
has NOT been used
to improve the
climate models.
Smarmy leftist
government
bureaucrat
"scientists"
continue
to predict
double to triple
of the actual
global warming,
using a CO2 -
temperature
relationship
assumption
from the 1970s,
that they refuse
to change.
Extensive
measurements
will allow study
of the lifecycle of
convective clouds,
in the trade-wind
regions, in detail.
EUREC4A will also
examine how fine-scale
features in the ocean
- eddies and fronts -
interact with the
atmosphere.
"Estimates of
climate sensitivity
( to CO2 )
remain very uncertain,
and most of this uncertainty
stems from the response
of low-level clouds
in the tropics,
especially in the
trade-wind regions,"
explains
Co-principal
investigator
Sandrine Bony,
of LMD .
"The low-level clouds
over Barbados
are typical of
the cloud cover
that can be found
in trade-wind regions
throughout the tropics.
Therefore,
what we learn
from EUREC4A
will not only enhance
our understanding
of clouds off Barbados,
but also tropical clouds
more generally."
Felix Ament of
the University
of Hamburg says:
"The information
about clouds and
their interactions
with the atmosphere
that we will capture
during EUREC4A
will be more detailed,
multifaceted, and
comprehensive,
than ever before.
We want to provide
a reference point
that will serve
as a touchstone
for encouraging and
inspiring scientists
over the coming
decades."
The measurement
campaign is using
five research aircraft,
and four ocean-going
research ships,
and is located
east and south
of the Caribbean
island of Barbados.
This includes
a new generation
of sophisticated
satellite-based
remote sensing
techniques, and
state-of-the-art
turbulence-resolving
climate models
( 100-meter grid size
over thousands
of kilometers )
at the MPI-M Barbados
Cloud Observatory.
( BCO )
Johannes Karstensen,
from the GEOMAR
Helmholtz Centre
for Ocean Research Kiel,
who is the Expedition Leader
on the Maria S. Merian, said:
"We want to understand
the coupling between
oceanic and atmospheric
processes, especially
in the case of large eddies
and frontal zones,
and thus make these
easier to represent
in model simulations."