Last month
two scientists
published a
commentary
in Nature
magazine,
calling out
their fellow
climate modelers
for repeatedly
exaggerating
the likelihood
of catastrophe,
by exaggerating
likely future
greenhouse gas
emissions.
The comment
specifically
questioned
the use of
the Representative
Carbon Pathways'
( RCP )
worst-case scenario
model, RCP8.5.
RCP8.5 had been cited
more than 2,500 times
in scientific journals
as the primary need
for "urgent action"
on climate.
In the original
scientific paper,
RCP8.5 had
a slim 3% chance
of becoming
reality.
Climate alarmists
loved ECP8.5,
and called it a
"business-as-usual"
scenario, even though
it was not.
Climate scientist
Zeke Hausfather, of the
Breakthrough Institute,
said the RCP8.5
worst-case scenario
is unlikely to happen.
We can't get there,
given how much
fossil fuel
is being used now.
The RCP8.5 model
assumes a 500%
increase in the use
of coal, even though
actual coal use
has been declining.
The two authors
of the Nature article
hedge by saying
that lower future
temperatures, due to
assuming less coal
use than RCP8.5,
are not guaranteed.
RCP BACKGROUND:
Over a decade ago,
the UN's IPCC
developed four
scenarios for
future greenhouse
gas concentrations,
allowing the
climate modelers
to wild guess
21st century
global average
temperatures.
Representative
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
ranged from
RCP2.6
( smallest change,
least warming ),
RCP4.5,
RCP6.0 and
RCP8.5.
The RCP8.5
scenario was
a speculative
worst-case
scenario.
RCP2.6 assumes
the Paris Accord
is implemented.
In 2013
the IPCC decided
to declare the RCP8.5
scenario was most likely
a “Business-as-usual”
outcome, which then
became popular for
climate research.
Actual CO2 levels
over recent decades,
compared to the
RCP scenarios,
have been in the
bottom end of the
scenario range.
The authors
of the Nature
commentary
insist
“this admission
[ about exaggerating
CO2 emissions ]
does not make
climate action
less urgent.”
They are lying.
Stop the
exaggerating
of future CO2
emissions,
and then
climate action
is not urgent
at all !