For COVID-19, the "right"
answers are not simple,
and what seems smart
today, may turn out to
be counter-productive.
The computer models
have also been way off,
even worse than
the climate models !
THE POLIO EXPERIENCE:
For the severely afflicted,
a polio infection required
an iron lung for children
to breathe.
The polio virus had been
around for a long time --
maybe thousands of years.
Dr. Krause, from the
National Institute of Health,
published this in 1992:
“There are numerous examples
of old viruses, that have caused
new epidemics, as a consequence
of changes in human practices
and social behavior.
Epidemic poliomyelitis emerged
in the first half of this century,
when modern sanitation
delayed exposure of the virus
until adolescence or adulthood,
at which time it produced infection
in the central nervous system,
and severe paralysis.
Before the introduction
of modern sanitation,
polio infection was acquired
during infancy, at which time
it seldom caused paralysis,
but provided lifelong immunity
against subsequent polio
infection and paralysis
in later life.
Thus,
the sanitation
and hygiene
that helped prevent
typhoid epidemics
in an earlier era,
fostered the paralytic
polio epidemic.”
There were
three strains
of poliovirus
identified.
Vaccinations
eradicated
two types.
Early exposure
to polio viruses
provided life-long
immunity.
COVID-19 QUESTIONS:
Is sheltering in place
preventing people
from becoming naturally
immune to COVID-19
after being infected
with a mild strain ?
The larger the population
of naturally immune people,
the less likely
another deadly strain
of COVID-19 will spread
in the future.
Social distancing
does minimize
exponential growth
of a deadly strain.
Social distancing
also prevents
the exponential
growth of naturally
immune people.
We definitely needed
to minimize the spread
of COVID-19 to those
vulnerable older people,
with other medical problems.
On the other hand,
many people have
tested positive
for the COVID-19 virus,
with no symptoms
( early data suggest
20% to 40% ).
That suggests
a mild strain(s)
of COVID-19 exists,
that could naturally
impart immunity
to "victims", with
a very low probability
of them needing
hospitalization.
Mild COVID-19
reactions are
primarily seen
in healthy people
who are younger
than 50 years old.
If those
"youngsters"
got COVID-19
immunity,
they would be
less vulnerable
in the future.
Recently, in the
New England
Journal of Medicine,
Dr, Fauci wrote,
" If one assumes that the
number of asymptomatic
or minimally
symptomatic cases is
several times as high
as the number
of reported cases,
the case fatality rate
may be considerably
less than 1%.
This suggests
the overall clinical
consequences
of Covid-19
may ultimately be
more akin to those of a
severe seasonal influenza
(which has a
case fatality rate
of approximately 0.1%)
or a pandemic influenza
( similar to those
in 1957 and 1968 ),
rather than a disease
similar to SARS or MERS,
which have had case
fatality rates of 9% to 10%,
and 36%, respectively."
Dr John Ioannidis,
a Professor of Medicine,
of Health Research
and Policy, and of
Biomedical Data Science,
at Stanford University
School of Medicine,
wrote an opinion piece
"A fiasco in the making?"
about making decisions
about COVID-19
without having
reliable data,
suggesting that
we may be
overreacting.
It will be difficult
to determine
the effect of our
"lockdowns",
if COVID-19 data
has misled us, and
we later find out
the actual death rate
was close to ordinary
influenza.
COVID-19 without symptoms
makes it very easy to spread
the virus, but also very easy
to overestimate the actual
death rate.
Flu infections
in the past have
dramatically
dropped due to
seasonal warming,
usually after a peak
in April.
A typical flu
seasonal trend
may have a much
greater effect
in April and May
than the lockdown.
But ...
if the lockdowns
inhibit the spread
of a natural immunity
( aka "herd immunity" )
in early 2020,
then we may be
setting the stage
for a second wave
of COVID-19
in Fall 2020 !
As usual, real science
is complicated, with
lots of unanswered
questions.
Only junk science
( aka "CO2 is evil " )
is simple ...
and aimed
at simpletons.