A frequent
claim about
global warming
is that it will lead
to more severe
droughts.
Really?
Not in the U.S.,
based on real data.
The United States
is benefiting from
fewer, and less
extreme, drought
events as the climate
modestly warms.
In 2017 and 2019,
the United States
registered its smallest
percentage of land area
experiencing drought
in recorded history.
The United States
is undergoing its
longest period
in recorded history
with fewer than 40%
of the country
experiencing
“very dry”
conditions.
The National Oceanic
and Atmospheric
Administration
chart below:
Note also the peaks
in drought around 1978,
1954, 1930, and 1900
are much larger than
what the U.S.
experienced
in the 21st century
and the late
20th century.
NOAA defines
“extreme” as:
Climate divisions
in the top ten percent
( > 90th percentile )
of their
historical
distribution
are considered
"very warm/wet"
and those in the
bottom ten percent
( < 10th percentile )
are classified as
"very cold/dry".
Severe droughts
have become
much less common
in the last two
or three decades,
when measured
this way.
Most regions
exhibit
earlier periods
of drought
far more severe
than anything
in recent years.
The only real exception
is the West, which shows
little in the way of any
trends at all.
( Contrary to inaccurate
claims about the recent
Californian drought ).
The worst drought
in the Northeast
occurred
in the 1960s,
while by far the
worst drought
in the South
was during
the 1950s
( often ignored,
but perhaps as dry
as the 1930s).