INTRODUCTION:
The "Santa Clara study"
has been used by some
people on TV to justify
the "lockdowns" and
"social distancing."
( pro-Democrat-biased
TV news shows )
It has also been used
to criticize the lockdowns,
and support reopening
the U.S. economy.
( pro-Republican-biased
TV news shows ).
I treat scientific studies
differently, as a result
of reading climate science
as a hobby since 1997.
If scientists claim to 'know'
the future, for example,
I assume their accuracy
will be near zero,
as has been true forever !
If they state an unusual
opinion, about a relatively
new subject, such as
COVID-19, I get very
suspicious.
This Santa Clara
study immediately
made me suspicious.
SUMMARY:
This small and
non-random study
allegedly showed
“48,000 – 81,000″
people in Santa Clara
County had COVID-19,
and didn’t know it,
based on
antibody tests.
But the study
methodology
was bad news.
DETAILS:
-- The study picked
the California county
with the highest number
of COVID-19 cases,
and the earliest cases
too, when there was
little testing.
-- They advertised
on Facebook
for test subjects
= selection bias
( the people
who felt sick,
in any way, were
much more likely
to volunteer
for a test.
People who felt fine,
were much more likely
to stay safe at home ).
-- Results were
adjusted upwards,
and then presented
as headline grabbing,
but misleading, ratios.
Actual Test Results:
-- 50 people out
of 3,330 people
tested positive
for COVID-19
antibodies
( that's 1.5% )
It's possible
many of the
50 people
were false
positives,
and possibly
all of them.
-- The 1.5% was
adjusted upwards
to '2.5% to 4.2%'.
( I don't know of
any logical reason
for doing that )
-- Data were not
sorted by age,
which may be
the most important
characteristic of
COVID-19
infections
and deaths.
-- The fatality rate
was estimated
( wild guessed ).
The headlines
didn't summarize
the study fairly.
( as I've done here )
Most headlines
were designed
to shock readers.
One example:
"Stanford University
antibody testing
finds California
virus infections
are 50 TIMES
higher than reported –
suggesting COVID-19
is more widespread
across the US."