The Swedish
COVID-19
"soft lockdown"
looked brilliant
one month ago,
but may cost more
in the long run.
The “half lockdown”
may have stopped
the exponential growth,
but wasn’t enough
to reduce the spread
of COVID-19.
Sweden is now trapped
into maintaining
isolation measures,
while other countries
open up around them.
Norway’s hard action,
closing borders,
did cost more
in the short run,
but they are now
tracking towards
zero new cases !
Sweden had
twice as many
cases per capita
as Norway,
and ten times
as many deaths.
Antibody tests show
that by late April,
only 7% of Stockholm
may have been exposed
to the virus, much less
than the 20+ percent
that the Swedish Chief
Epidemiologist was
expecting.
And far too low
a percentage for
"herd immunity".
In the charts below,
the numbers are on
the same scale,
even though the
populations differ
-- For example,
Sweden has
twice the population
as Norway
(10 vs. 5 million).
Focus on the shape
of the "curves":
NORWAY:
Major lockdowns
were announced
on March 15, and
new daily cases
peaked on
March 27th.
Norway is planning
to reopen flights
with Denmark and
Finland on June 15.
But will exclude Sweden
because there are still
too many infections there.
SWEDEN:
Mobility (trains, busses, cars )
in Sweden was reduced by
about half, compared to
reductions of 75% to 85%
in Norway and London.
Even if the government
didn't mandate restrictions,
it appears that many Swedes
chose to stay at home
anyway.
