Doran and Zimmerman, 2009
A paper written by
Maggie Kendall Zimmerman,
a University of Illinois student,
and her master’s thesis advisor,
Peter Doran, was published
in EOS.
They claimed “97% of climate
scientists agree” that mean
global temperatures have risen
since before the 1800s,
which is true,
and that humans
are a significant
contributing factor,
which is a guess
even if "significant"
is better defined.
The researchers sent a two-minute
online survey to 10,257 Earth scientists
working for universities and
government research agencies,
generating 3,146 responses.
The two researchers
started out by excluding
thousands of scientists
most likely to think that the Sun,
or planetary movements,
might have something to do
with the climate on Earth.
They deliberately
excluded:
-- solar scientists,
-- space scientists,
-- cosmologists,
-- physicists,
-- meteorologists, and
-- astronomers.
That left the
10,257 scientists
in disciplines
such as geology,
oceanography,
paleontology, and
geochemistry.
Note that only 5%
of the respondents
self-identified as
climate scientists.
The survey asked
two questions:
“Q1.
When compared with
pre-1800s levels,
do you think that
mean global temperatures
have generally risen, fallen,
or remained relatively
constant?
-- I would answer "risen", but caution
the global average includes a higher
percentage of wild guesses, than
actual measurements, and those
actual measurements are so rough,
and so often "adjusted", that it is
even possible there was no warming.
(90% answered “risen” to question 1)
"Q2.
Do you think human activity
is a significant contributing factor
in changing mean global
temperatures?”
-- I don't know what
"significant" means,
but I would answer
"yes", because
I believe it's possible
humans have caused
all the warming, from
faulty measurements and
economic growth
near thermometers!
- Faulty measurements:
--- "Adjustments" to raw data,
---- Wild guesses of temperatures
made for a majority of the Earth's
surface, where there are
no thermometers, and
- Economic growth over time:
Building roads, parking lots,
buildings, airport runways, etc.
in the vicinity of land-based
thermometers.
(82% percent answered
“yes” to question 2. )
The authors get their
fraudulent “97% of
climate scientists believe”
sound bite by focusing on
only 79 scientists out of
3,146 responses!
They kept editing
the responses
until they got
the "right answer".
The 79 scientists
were those who listed
climate science
as their area of expertise,
and who had published
more than 50%
of their recent
peer-reviewed papers
on the subject
of climate change.
Most skeptics
of man-made
global warming,
including me,
would answer
those two questions
the same way
as alarmists would.
Only 79 climate scientists
is hardly a representative
sample of scientific opinion.