Physicist Richard Feynman said
“It is whether or not the theory
gives predictions that agree
with experiment.
It is not a question of whether
a theory is philosophically delightful,
or easy to understand, or
perfectly reasonable from
the point of view of common sense.”
"QED: The Strange Theory of Light and Matter"
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985),
Scientists are grappling
with the problem
of model uncertainty.
Modern scientific knowledge
depends upon mathematically
expressed theories that
could be validated by prediction
and observation (measurements).
A valid scientific theory requires:
(1)
A mathematical model
expressing the theory.
(2)
Precise relationships specified
between the theory and
measurements of corresponding
physical events.
(3)
Validating data:
Predictions derived from
he theory compared with
measurements of physical events.
(4)
A statistical analysis
that supports the theory
( the predictions match
the physical measurements )
The meaning
of a scientific theory
depends on the
connection between
the mathematics
and experience.
That connection occurs
via the process
of validation.
Science requires
that we be able to make
accurate predictions
of future events, based
on mathematical models.
Thousands of daily
decisions are made
by politicians, managers,
and bureaucrats that are
directly or indirectly
related to science.
A leader must understand
the validation process:
What predictions
are derived
from the theory,
and to what extent
have those predictions
agreed with observations?
Good decision-making
requires a fundamental
basic knowledge of science.
The climate is
always changing.
The scientific question
is whether climate change
can be predicted.
The predictive skill
of a model is usually
measured by comparing
the predicted outcome
with the observed one.
But climate projections
for 50 or 100 years
can't be validated directly
through observed changes,
without waiting for
many decades.
So any confidence
in climate models
must be coming
from faith in the
medels, not
validation .
Repeated wrong
climate predictions,
however, are always
anti-science.
We've got that !
Data mining may look
like real science, but
what is missing is the
connection between
the mathematics and
verifiable accurate
predictions.
We don't have that !