The climate system
is never in equilibrium.
Not in thermodynamic
equilibrium, to be
specific.
The two most
important variables
for the
greenhouse effect,
are water vapor
and clouds.
Both are not
fully understood,
and are not stable.
Temperatures
in the tropics,
however,
have been
extremely stable.
It is the
temperature differences
between the tropics
and the polar regions
that are important.
A smaller difference
mean milder weather.
I've heard the so-called
climate alarmists claim
just the opposite !
The warming Arctic
has narrowed
the temperature gap
between the Arctic
and the equator.
Calculations, such
as the global average
temperature, ignore that
important difference.
Water vapor, the dominant
greenhouse gas, is not well
distributed in the atmosphere.
There is a logarithmic
relationship between
greenhouse gases
and temperature.
The very narrow range
of infrared wavelengths
in which Methane (CH4)
can disrupt Earth
cooling
(into space)
process
(by absorbing and
emitting photons)
is already saturated
by water vapor (H2O),
the most dominant
greenhouse gas.
Adding methane
has little effect
on temperatures.
Japanese
climate modeler
Mototaka Nakamura,
wrote a book
available on Kindle,
which contains
an English summary.
Nakamura
is the author
of about twenty
published papers
on fluid dynamics,
one of the
complex subjects
in climate change.
The climate system
is largely made up
of two fluids
in dynamic motion,
the ocean,
and the atmosphere,
and we do not know
enough about
fluid dynamics
to make long-term
predictions about the
interactions of the two.
According to
Nakamura,
the climate models
are useless for
climate predictions.
Nakamura writes:
“These models completely lack some critically important climate processes and feedbacks and represent some other critically important climate processes and feedbacks in grossly distorted manners to the extent that makes these models totally useless for any meaningful climate prediction.
I myself used to use climate simulation models for scientific studies, not for predictions, and learned about their problems and limitations in the process.”
Climate scientist
Richard Lindzen, PhD,
has stated the models
fail to capture changes
in clouds, including
changing cloud area
and that the sizes
of clouds are too small
for grid scale modeling.
Nakamura’s work reflects
a modeler who spent years
trying to model the climate
system.
He recognizes
how unsuccessful
this 40 plus year
climate modeling
effort has been.
Quoting from
the beginning
of the
English appendix
of Nakamura’s book:
... "I know the internal workings of these models very well. I find it rather bewildering that so many climate researchers, many of whom are only ‘so-called climate researchers’ in my not-so-humble opinion, appear to firmly believe in the validity of using these models for climate forecasting. I have observed that many of those climate researchers who firmly believe in the global warming hypothesis view the climate system in a grotesquely simplified fashion: ... "
“The most obvious and egregious problem is the treatment of incoming solar energy — it is treated as a constant, that is, as a ‘never changing quantity’. It should not require an expert to explain how absurd this is if ‘climate forecasting’ is the aim of the model use. It has been only several decades since we acquired an ability to accurately monitor the incoming solar energy. In these several decades only, it has varied by 1 to 2 Watts per square meters. Is it reasonable to assume that it will not vary any more than that in the next hundred years or longer for forecasting purposes? I would say ‘No’."
Climate scientist
John Christy, of the
Earth System
Science Center
at the University
of Alabama
in Huntsville
(UAH),
and others,
have shown
that the models
used by the UN
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
grossly overestimate
the warming of the
atmosphere over
the tropics.
The greenhouse effect
occurs in the troposphere.
The one exception
is the model created by
The Institute of Numerical
Mathematics of the Russian
Academy of Sciences.
The accuracy of that model
is completely obscured
by averaging it's mild global
warming predictions,
with dozens of inaccurate
models predicting faster
global warming ... faster
warming that never happens !