... “It is a pretty brutal air mass,” said Bob Oravec, senior branch forecaster at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center.
“The cold air is entrenched across the middle part of the country.
High temperatures are amazingly cold, some 50 degrees below average.”
...
Weather forecast models suggest the polar vortex will continue pouring
Arctic air into much of the central US through Feb. 20.
As a result of this, Texas power grid operator ERCOT, has issued a statement warning of an "energy emergency" and threatening "rotating outages" just when residents need the power to heat their homes the most.
"Texas wholesale spot electricity prices Sunday, day ahead cleared, hit $4,765 per KWh for the peak, and $2,297 for the off peak ... BY FAR THE HIGHEST CLEAR ON RECORD.
Wholesale electricity power for delivery Sunday was trading at anywhere from $3,000 to $7,000 a megawatt-hour in some places, triple the records set in some places Saturday and a staggering 2,672% increase from Friday at Texas’s West hub.
Average spot power prices were just shy of $1,000 per megawatt hour during peak hours Sunday morning, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
... If you are a retailer, obligated to, lets just say, 25MW, and did not hedge (meaning you left it to get filled by ERCOT at market clearing price), you just incurred a $7.1M cost on an around the clock basis for a single day.
... How long before Washington steps in with a probe of the power markets?
A bailout for grid operators and perhaps some relief for actual residents who - we are desperately sad to say - may just freeze to death amid this 'perfect storm' of freezing temps and no supply of power to provide heat.
“Spot prices are expected to hit $9,000 on both Monday and Tuesday,” said Brian Lavertu, a trader for Active Power Investments.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is asking consumers and businesses to reduce their electricity use as much as possible Sunday, Feb. 14 through Tuesday, Feb. 16.
"At the same time, we are dealing with higher-than-normal generation outages due to frozen wind turbines and limited natural gas supplies available to generating units.
We are asking Texans to take some simple, safe steps to lower their energy use during this time."
... Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.
... Natural gas in Chicago hit $220 per mmBtu, traders said.
Physical gas was going for as much as $300 per mmBtu at a Texas hub.
Oklahoma gas prices have swung anywhere between $50 to the high of $600.
... frigid temperatures caused equipment failures, temporarily shutdowns and flaring in at least four natural gas processing plants ...
Targa Resources’ Benedum Gas Plant in Upton County affected for 7 hours overnight
Occidental Petroleum’s Bennett Ranch Unit RCF Facility in Yoakum County, which is used for EOR, was affected for 9 hours Thursday
DCP Midstream’s Goldsmith Gas Plant in Ector County affected for 1 hour Thursday
Occidental’s nearby gas plant, another EOR facility, was affected by DCP Midstream incident
... we hit the proverbial offer less market where any natural gas that was available would be purchased at virtually any price, which is why mid-continent prices such as the Oneok OGT natural gas spot exploded from $3.46 one week ago, to $9 on Wednesday, $60.28 on Thursday and an insane $377.13 on Friday, up 32,000% in a few days.
... there simply is nowhere near enough product to satisfy demand at any price hence the explosive move.
Hubs across the Mid-continent led the surge in prices again Feb. 12 as weather forecasts predicted the coldest temperatures in more than a decade would hit the region over the upcoming holiday weekend.
Platts reported that at locations across Kansas, Oklahoma and Eastern Arkansas, hub prices were trading at single-day record highs around $200 to $300/MMBtu.
... At one Enable Gas Transmission location, the cash market traded as high as $500 with weighted-average prices holding steady by mid-session around $359/MMBtu.
At other nearby hubs, cash markets moved to dizzying, record highs with One Oak Oklahoma at $374, Southern Star at $275, Panhandle at $225 and ANR Oklahoma at $205.
... Of course, as natural gas went offer less it was just a matter of hours before the immediate downstream commodity, electricity, would follow suit and that's precisely what happened overnight as wholesale electricity prices across all US markets on Friday.
This is catastrophic news not only for the continued freeze in natural gas distribution, but for the explosion in electricity prices which could see many customers see a February electricity bill in the thousands, if not tens of thousands.
Prices in response to the persistent cold have pushed load expectations to all time winter highs, and on par with the hottest summer days the ISO has experienced.
... the peak price in Ercot west real-time hit an absolute all time high of $5,500, up from $302 the day before.
If anyone has a little extra natural gas in storage, this is the time to sell it and buy a private island."
