Similar results were obtained in a study by a Chinese research group, as well as other studies.
The discrepancy in sea ice extent between the empirical satellite observations and the climate models is particularly pronounced on a regional basis.
At the February minimum, the satellite data indicate substantial residual ice in the Weddell Sea to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula whereas most models show very little.
And the few models that simulate a realistic amount of February sea ice fail to reproduce the loss of ice in the Ross Sea adjoining West Antarctica.
All these differences indicate that computer models are not properly simulating the physical processes that govern Antarctic sea ice.
Various ... processes not incorporated in the models ... include freshening of seawater by melting ice shelves attached to the Antarctic ice sheet; melt water from rain; and atmospheric processes involving clouds or wind.
BAS climate modeler Paul Holland ... surmised that it was more important to look at how fast the ice was growing or shrinking from season to season than focusing on changes in ice extent.
His calculations of the rate of growth led him to conclude that seasonal wind trends play a role.
The researcher found that winds are spreading sea ice out in some regions of Antarctica, while compressing or keeping it intact in others, and that these effects begin in the spring.
“I always thought ... the biggest changes must be in autumn, Holland said. “But the big result for me now is we need to look at spring.
The trend is bigger in the autumn, but it seems to be created in spring.”
That’s where Holland’s research stands for now.
More detailed work is required to check out his novel idea."
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Tuesday, March 9, 2021
"Growing Antarctica Sea Ice Defies Climate Models"
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"For actual sea ice extent, the majority of models simulate too meager an extent at the February minimum, while several models estimate less than two thirds of the real-world extent at the September maximum.