Note: My conclusions about the climate are always based on the best data available -- not on wild guess computer game predictions of the future climate … and my conclusions contradict what we've been told to believe by the New York Times, PBS and National Geographic, so leftists will reject them immediately.
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The ramp up of manmade CO2, mainly after 1940, was supposed to significantly increase the average temperature of Earth.
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That did not happen.
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From 1940 to 1976, the average temperature went down.
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By 1975 some scientists studying the surface temperature data had started warning the world of a coming global cooling disaster.
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Those scientists were wrong, as humans usually are when predicting the future.
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From 1976 to 1998, the average temperature and manmade CO2 both rose significantly.
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That may be a coincidence, or something else caused both to rise, but two variables moving in the same direction at the same time is not proof that one caused the other to rise.
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Especially after CO2 levels and temperature moved in opposite directions in the prior 36 years … and again moved in opposite directions for the next 17 years (so far).
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That short period from 1976 to 1998 is the ONLY period in the entire 4.5 billion year history of Earth when manmade CO2 and average temperature both significantly rose at the same time.
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In 2014 an increase of the average temperature of just one-hundredth of a degree C. versus 2013, was claimed as a new record by one surface measurement team, even though the measurement margin of error was much larger than that.
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Inaccurate, non-global surface measurements are used by the global warmists, while they completely ignore more accurate satellite data.
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The warmists declarations that 2014 was the hottest year on record were announced with big headlines … but no mainstream media source bothered mentioning the minuscule margins ranging from one-hundredth of a degree C. to four-hundredths of a degree C..
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I'm confident a few hundredths of a degree of "rounding up" was used to manufacture the 2014 average temperature headlines the warmists desperately wanted to show the world.
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For surface measurements, most unpopulated areas of the world have no thermometers, so temperatures there have to be guessed at by using data from other areas -- this is a huge opportunity to tamper with the data and make sure the surface temperature charts look like what the computer models previously predicted.
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A summary of the science of climate change is very short for three reasons:
(1) Accurate measurements of CO2 did not begin until the early 1800's (the UNs IPCC ignores all real-time CO2 measurements from 1812 to 1959, in favor of inaccurate ice core proxy estimates),
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(2) Accurate average global temperature measurements did not begin until 1979 (the IPCC ignores all of these weather satellite measurements), and
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(3) Wild guess predictions of the future climate are not data at all (IPCC scaremongering is based entirely on these computer game predictions).
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Its very obvious the IPCC cherry picks data in a desperate (and failed) attempt to prove humans caused warming, and their goal is for the UN to take charge of solving a problem they predict by playing computer games!
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Here is everything we know about Earth's climate that is relevant for considering whether the current climate is normal or abnormal:
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(1) Earth's climate is always warming or cooling,
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(2) Whether you measure warming or cooling depends mainly on the starting date and ending date you choose for the measurement. For example:
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- Earth in 2014 was much cooler than during the hot Greenhouse Age (starting 260 million years ago, and existing for about 250 million years, according to geologists),
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- Earth in 2014 was warmer than at the peak of the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago (Ice started to accumulate in Antarctica only 20 million years ago, and eventually the current Ice Age, known as the Pleistocene, began about 2.5 million years ago. Our species evolved to its current state during the Pleistocene, which we are still in today -- the Pleistocene accounts for only 0.07% of the history of life on Earth),
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- Earth in 2014 was cooler than in 1998, per accurate weather satellite data, and
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(3) The future climate is unknown, and unknowable (similar to everything else that will happen in the future).
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Politicians of all parties try to gain power by claiming something bad will happen in the future unless you elect them and give them the power to "prevent" the problem.
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They have been doing this for centuries.
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Here is a partial list of false or unproven claims for CO2 that I didn't have room for in the January-February 2015 ECONOMIC LOGIC climate change article:
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Increases in CO2 have been claimed to cause:
" • Higher temperatures
• Lower temperatures
• More snow and blizzards
• Drought, fire, and floods
• Rising sea levels
• Disappearing glaciers
• Loss of sea ice at the poles
• Species extinction
• More and stronger storms
• More storm damage
• More volcanic eruptions
• Dying forests
• Death of coral reefs and shellfish
• Shutting down the Gulf Stream
• Fatal heat waves
• More heat-related illness and disease
• Crop failure and food shortages
• Millions of climate change refugees
• Increased cancer, cardiovascular disease, mental illness, and respiratory disease,
• And a devastating effect on the quality of French wines".
Source: "Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout:
Source: "Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout:
The Making of a Sensible Environmentalist"
Patrick Moore, Ph.D., published in 2013
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Here are the final results for the 2014 average temperature of Earth.
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It was a colder than usual year through most of 2014, with many cold weather records set, but finished with a warm month of December.
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From the last ECONOMIC LOGIC newsletter:
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" - 2014 had the greatest snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere on record,
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- 2014 had the greatest Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent (area) on record,
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- 2014 had Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent (area) rebound back to a normal level, and
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- 2014 US Great Lakes ice set three records (the greatest ice extent (area) on record in early 2014, the longest ice duration on record in early 2014, and the earliest ice formation on record in late 2014)."
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And here's another 2014 cold weather record released after the newsletter was published:
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- In 2014 the number of US land-based temperature stations that reached 90 degrees F. or higher were the fewest on record.
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I'll start by listing 2014 results based on accurate, global data from weather satellites (warmists and fellow leftists in the media try to make sure you don't even know these data exist):
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(1) The Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) satellites reported that 2014 was only the sixth warmest year since 1978, when RSS satellite measurements began.
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Satellites measured a warming trend from the late 1970s to 1998, but its obvious rising CO2 since 1998 did not create a new temperature record.
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(2) Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), reported their satellites showed 2014 was only the third warmest year since 1979, barely edging out 2002, 2005, and 2013.
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The warmists ONLY report on inaccurate, non-global, frequently "adjusted" to show more warming, surface measurements, which I would normally ignore because they are inferior data:
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(3) NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) said 2014 surface temperature results were a mere +0.02 (two one-hundredths of a degrees) C. higher than in 2010.
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Two one-hundredths of a degree C. higher is equivalent to less than four one-hundredths of a degree F. higher
(4) NOAAs National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) said 2014 surface temperature results were a mere +0.04 degrees (four one-hundredths of a degree) C. higher than in 2005 and 2010.
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(5) Berkeley Earth also announced record highs in 2014, but only by a mere +0.01 (one-hundredth of a degree) C.
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Calling 2014 the hottest year on record completely ignores the margin of uncertainty for the data, and completely ignores contradictory, and much more accurate, weather satellite data.
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WARMING TRENDS, COOLING TRENDS, and ICE AGES:
I explained in the January-February 2015 ECONOMIC LOGIC newsletter why claims that: "2014 is the hottest year on record" mean almost nothing:
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(1) 99.999% of Earth's history has no real-time temperature measurements, and
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(2) All the real-time measurements that do exist (the past 135 years) were made during a warming trend.
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There will be many new record highs repeatedly set during any warming trend, until the trend ends and a cooling trend begins … and then there will be new cool weather records repeatedly set until that cooling trend ends.
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At the end of the next cooling cycle, we will have real-time temperature data for one entire warming/cooling cycle, but that day may be many hundreds of years in the future.
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Ice core climate proxy studies in Greenland and Antarctica identified about 600 warming/cooling cycles in the past one million years, averaging about 1,500 years +/- 500 years per cycle.
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The ice core studies did find one correlation between average temperature peaks and CO level peaks:
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(1) Average temperature peaks were FOLLOWED by CO level peaks 500 to 1,000 years LATER,
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(2) Temperature peaks could NOT have been CAUSED by CO2 peaks, and
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(3) CO2 peaks could have been CAUSED by temperature peaks.
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If historical climate cycles identified by ice core studies repeat in the future, then the current warming trend that started in roughly 1850, assuming it did not already end in 1998, is likely to last for hundreds of years.
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And the warming will be good news, because the only alternative would be a cooling trend, or a new ice age -- both much less desirable than warming.
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Climate proxy studies show the average temperature was in a cooling trend from roughly 1350 to 1850.
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A warming trend began about 1850, which of course meant it was NOT started by manmade CO2.
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Half of all the warming measured so far (a mere +1.3 degrees F. from 1880 through 2014) was before 1940, which means it happened BEFORE the rapid ramp up of manmade CO2 after 1940.
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That means every climate cycle in the 4.5 billion years before 1940 had to be a natural climate cycle = NOT caused by humans.
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The UNs IPCC would not object to that statement.
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THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
I have no idea what Earth's future climate is going to be like, nor does anyone else.
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I don't care about predictions made with computer models because they are meaningless computer games with no predictive ability.
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It's unfortunate climate science, a new field created a few decades ago by computer modelers, has become thoroughly contaminated by politics.
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The few thousand scientists who are climate modelers are usually on federal or state government 'payrolls', and they are financially rewarded for making scary environmental predictions the politicians can use to increase their power.
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Good politicians never let a real crisis go to waste.
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Great politicians can even manufacture a crisis out of thin air that exists ONLY in people's imaginations, with absolutely no physical evidence anything bad is happening -- and that describes the wacky world of "climate science" -- an alleged climate disaster that no one can see or feel happening, which always remains off in the future … the equivalent of an imaginary boogeyman believed to be hiding in the woods behind a child's home.
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The climate crisis has been 'coming' for 45 years so far !
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Unfortunately, nothing bad ever has to happen for politicians to use this invisible crisis -- their strategy works if most people merely BELIEVE a crisis is coming!
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The warmists who believe in this crisis are a cult -- they favor inaccurate frequently "adjusted" data or computer simulations, ignore accurate data that do not support their beliefs, "fix" their raw data with "adjustments" that always show more warming and then hide the raw data, character attack anyone who questions their beliefs, and refuse to debate their predictions.
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That is definitely cult behavior, and should make everyone very suspicious of scientists who get money as a reward for predicting a coming climate crisis.
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The climate articles on this blog may appear to be about science, but are really about the results of governments bribing a small subset of scientists -- climate modelers -- with grants (free money), in return for them claiming a climate change catastrophe is coming.
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Climate change catastrophe predictions are a clever application of an ancient political strategy to gain power (claim a disaster is coming unless the people do as I say without question):
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- Earth's climate has natural warming and cooling trends.
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- Everyone knows the average temperature has been gradually rising since the mid-1800's.
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- The Democrats decided to use this natural warming trend as a foundation for their claims … and then they jump to the unproven conclusion that the average temperature rise since the late 1970s, for the first time in Earth's history, was caused ONLY by humans burning fossil fuels (and coal).
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There is absolutely no scientific proof of this claim, but the Democrats have bribed enough fellow leftists with government grants -- people who happen to have advanced science degrees -- to program their computers to show rising CO2 causes warming, then they extrapolate the current rising trend of CO2 100 years out into the future, and voila', their 'computers' predict rising temperatures.
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Recent polls have shown few Americans think climate change is an important problem, so the warmists have refined their (false) warnings.
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So warmists are now claiming +2 degrees C. of warming is a tipping point, and we are already approaching half way there, so we must act now!
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The +2 degrees C. 'danger zone' (imagine scary-sounding Alfred Hitchcock-style film music now) is not based on any science -- it is merely a wild guess, just like the temperature predictions from the computer games.
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For leftists, "science" is any wild guess prediction made by a fellow leftist with a science degree … that they happen to believe in.
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My first article on climate change, in mid-2007, called the coming climate change catastrophe prediction nonsense.
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As of 2014, measured by accurate, global weather satellites, there has been NO global warming since that 2007 article.
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Am I bragging about that?
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No. I'm just reporting the facts using the most accurate data available.
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I don't predict the future, and am very skeptical of people who do.
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After studying the climate since 1997, it's very obvious more CO2 in the air is good news, has little or no effect on the average temperature, and a few degrees rise in the average temperature would be good news too.
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The only danger is from the demonization of CO2 and counterproductive efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.
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Democrats and other leftists had probably stopped reading this article after the first paragraph, because they were thinking: 'He thinks he knows more about the climate than the New York Times, so I'm going to stop reading'.
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Well, it's true -- I do know more about the climate than New York Times writers simply because I don't start with a conclusion of a coming climate catastrophe based on computer games.
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The New York Times ONLY prints articles in support of their leftist beliefs, such as the belief a climate change catastrophe is coming ... and the proof of this … is because they say so ... and they couldn't be wrong!
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A huge 'global warming industry' has developed, and the people making money from the "climate threat" are not going to let 12 to 18 years with no global warming trend (through 2014, per every measurement methodology in use), get in the way of their climate scaremongering.
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Earth is ALWAYS warming or cooling.
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The current Modern Warming since about 1850 was obviously not started by manmade CO2 in the 1800s, and was not suddenly caused ONLY by manmade CO2 starting in 1976, however it is the first natural warming trend USED by humans to gain political power.
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Some Republicans say there is no global warming. They are wrong, unless they specify no warming only in the past 12 to 18 years, which is true based on EVERY measurement methodology in use.
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The warmists at the IPCC call this a "pause", but in plain English that means global warming has stopped for 12 to 18 years -- even more years if you apply the margins of error to the measurements
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Most Democrats say 2014 is the hottest year on record. They are wrong to ignore the most accurate temperature data available, from weather satellites, and they accept far too many pro-warming "revisions" to their beloved surface data.
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Most Democrats claim CO2 is a pollutant. They are wrong -- CO2 is an airborne fertilizer that accelerates green plant growth with little or no effect on the temperature.
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Most Democrats claim global warming is a coming disaster. They are wrong -- warming is good news, especially since most warming since the 1970s was during the winter, when warming is very welcome.
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Many Democrats claim the rising sea level will become a disaster. They are wrong to claim the sea level rise (which started when the last ice age ended 14,000 years ago) has accelerated in recent decades -- it has actually slowed down.
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If there happened to be an acceleration of sea level rise in the future, it might become a disaster for people who own homes on the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean.
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Those homes tend to be expensive, so are probably owned mainly by rich people.
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So it seems to me that the Democrats' want to stop global warming mainly to prevent flooding of the ocean-side homes of rich people!
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That was a joke.
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The whole climate change scam, based on wild guess predictions of the future climate, is also a joke -- a bad joke -- but people on both sides are very serious about it.
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Many people aspire to vacation in a warm climate, and own a winter home in a warm climate, and yet they have been frightened by a mere +1.3 degrees F. increase in the average temperature of Earth since 1880, with a margin of error of +/- one degree for thermometers in the 1800s.
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This irrational fear explains why the aliens who fly UFOs in our skies never want to meet humans -- they judge us to be too violent, and too dumb.
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That was a joke, too.
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The climate change debate needs a lot more humor, and perhaps someday late-night show comedians will make jokes ridiculing irrational global warming fears and four decades of failed climate predictions … but I'm not holding my breath.
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If you read my climate articles on this blog, you will then know as much about the future climate of Earth as the most brilliant "climate scientists" do: You, and they, will both know absolutely nothing about the future climate of Earth. The future climate can not be predicted.