A simple article, with few numbers, summarizing REAL climate science -- sorry, no scary, wild guess predictions of a coming climate crisis -- because this article is non-fiction, not fiction

INTRODUCTION:

In "modern" 

climate science,

it's nearly impossible 

to accurately "predict"

the past climate, 

because the numbers 

keep changing !

And not by small amounts.

The future climate

seems easy to "predict" 

( 100% of the predictions 

are wrong, but the same 

scary climate predictions

are still made every year,

since the 1970s, stated 

LOUDER, and with more 

confidence, every year ).

The mass media gives

a huge amount of attention

to scary climate predictions,

and never follows up to

tell people 100% of past

predictions were wrong !

Predictions are still based

on a CO2-temperature formula 

proposed in the 1970s,

believe it or not 

( A 100% CO2 increase will 

cause +1.5 to +4.5 degrees C.

of global warming -- a formula

first highly publicized in the 

1979 Charney Report ) .

If you cherry pick data, 

and merely assume that 100% 

of the warming after 1975

was caused by man made CO2,

( the UN's IPCC only claims "over 50%" ).

then your WORST CASE estimate 

would be about +1 degree C.

of global warming from a 100%

increase of the atmospheric

CO2 level -- below the range

"supported" by the IPCC.

The right answer is 

"no one knows how much 

warming CO2 causes, if any"

It's impossible to know

what percentage of warming 

had natural causes, and wrong

to arbitrarily claim natural

causes of climate change 

no longer matter, after having

4.5 billion years 
of climate change

with 100% natural causes.

So how did science 
lead to predictions 
of an "existential threat"

climate change crisis ? 

Scary climate predictions have 

nothing to do with real science,

and the claims of a 97% 

scientific consensus are lies,

based on deliberately

manipulated "surveys".

Here are my analyses 
of those so-called 
"97% surveys", 
originally published 
in March of this year:

https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2019/03/fake-consensus-survey-summary.html

https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2019/03/fake-consensus-survey-oreskes-2004.html

https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2019/03/fake-consensus-survey-b-doran-zimmerman.html

https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2019/03/fake-consensus-survey-c-anderegg-2010.html
.
https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2019/03/fake-consensus-survey-d-cook-2013doc.html

To enjoy reading 

the rest of
this article 
you must have 
an open mind --

you must believe 

predictions of a

"coming climate crisis" 
could be wrong.

Climate alarmists
may not know what 
they are talking about, 
or even care 
-- because their

"solution" to every 

claimed environmental

crisis, since the 1960s, and

now the imaginary climate, 

crisis, is a more powerful 

government, led by leftist

politicians -- which is something

leftists have always wanted !

At this blog, based on

real climate science,

there is obviously no 

climate crisis now,

and no one on Earth 

is capable of predicting 

the future climate.

When the current warm

Holocene interglacial

period ends, and the 

planet gets a lot colder,

that would be a real

climate crisis.

But if the planet gets

one degree C. warmer 

in the next 100 years,
or even two degrees C.,

that's good news, 

and not even close

to being a crisis !

Because global warming
from greenhouse gases
should affect the 
coldest and dryest
atmospheres of our planet, 
such as over Alaska, 
and least affect
the humid tropics.

That's exactly what 
has happened so far.

And so far, 
global warming 
has had 
almost no effect
on the ice mass 
on top of Antarctica,
which could be 
dangerous over 
a long period 
of time ... 
BUT HAS NOT 
HAPPENED !

REAL  CLIMATE  

SCIENCE  101:

A few smarmy scientists 

got a lot of media attention 

in the mid-1970s.

All scientists at the time
knew another cold ice age

was coming, eventually.

It's still coming, 

but no one knows 

if it will start tomorrow

or in 1,000 years.

So it's best to enjoy

our current warm

interglacial period,

called the Holocene,

because our planet 

is cold roughly 90% 

of the time !

About 20,000 years ago.

Canada, Chicago and 

Detroit were covered 

by mile thick glaciers.

About 10,000 years ago,

Canada, Chicago and

Detroit were ice free,

and the planet was 

slightly to moderately

warmer than today, 

in the period called 

the Holocene Optimum.

But that's old news.

and talking about it

won't get any

media attention.

A small percentage

of climate scientists

simply observed 

the global cooling

from 1940 to 1975,

and then jumped

to the conclusion

that cooling period

was actually the 

beginning of the 

expected transition
to another cold ice age.

Their predictions 

were 100% wrong, 

just like every other

prediction of the 

future climate.

But they got a lot

of media attention.

Because the mass media 

loves a scary story,

especially coming from

a scientist -- a field

well trusted at the time.

The media attention

showed other scientists

that scary forecasts 

get lots of attention,

and government grants,

for further study.

As a result of the publicity,

scary climate forecasts

became much more 

common, although

about global warming,

not global cooling.

The predictions are still

100% wrong, but they

are stated with high levels

of confidence, by people

with science degrees,

so many people believe

them.

I have a science degree,

and I wrote that last

paragraph with a high

level of confidence,
so it must be true !

The coming global warming 

"crisis" consists of a small

amount of laboratory

science ( infrared gas

spectroscopy ) identifying 

CO2 as a greenhouse gas, 

that is likely to slow

the natural cooling
process of our planet.

Slowing the cooling

is equivalent to "warming".

And our planet has had

mild, intermittent warming.

But that warming started

20,000 years ago.

Long before their were

SUVs emitting CO2 !

More recently, there was

mild, intermittent warming

since the late 1600s.

Only the warming after 1975

could be blamed on CO2 --

the UN's IPCC organization

claims "over half" of the

warming was from
man made 
greenhouse gases.

They actually have no idea

what the right percentage is

-- "over 50%" 

is just a guess

-- the right answer
is 'somewhere' 
between 0%

and 100%.

Unfortunately, scientists

do a lot of jumping to

conclusions about the 

causes of climate change,

and love to make

predictions of the 

future climate.

That's why 
climate predictions

are 100% wrong -- 
very consistent,
but always wrong.

When asked about 
the cooling period 
from 1940 to 1975,

as CO2 levels rose, 
scientists blamed 
air pollution 
blocking sunlight.

When it was pointed out 
that air pollution 
was the worst
in the late 1970's, 
when the the 

global average temperature

began rising, the scientists
just tap danced and mumbled,

while gradually "adjusting"

historical temperature data

to make the 1940 to 1975

cooling period go away.

At least one global average 

temperature compilation

no longer shows any

global cooling in that period,

while others cut the cooling

in half, or by two-thirds.

Scary climate predictions 

started in the late 1950s, 

and ramped up a lot 

after the late 1980s.

Before the UN-initiated 

Intergovernmental Panel 

on Climate Change (IPCC) 

formed in 1988, the most

common assumption 

was that carbon dioxide 

was responsible for the

rising global average 

temperature after 1975. 

Recently, 

anthropogenic 

 ( human caused ) 

global warming 

was declared 

to be the 

"existential crisis" 

of our time, 

in spite of no evidence 

anyone had been hurt 

by the past 300+ years 

of intermittent, mild 

global warming,

since the late 1600s.

IPCC climate forecasts 

have not materialized 

as predicted -- average

climate model predictions

are for roughly triple

the global warming 

that actually happened.

Before the IPCC formed, 

NOAA’s Mauna Loa 

Observatory in Hawaii 

registered CO2  levels 

under 350 ppm 

( ppm = parts per million ) .

We were told by

some scientists

if CO2 exceeded 

that number, 

planet Earth 

was in big trouble.

CO2 levels have since

risen to 415 ppm.

Nothing bad happened.

The IPCC controlled 

the climate debate 

by assuming man-made 

activity was responsible 

for climate change, and 

that Nature was not 

an active participant. 

Never mind the prior

4.5 billion years of 

constant, natural 

climate change !

The IPCC would 

have us believe 

the Sun is irrelevant.

CO2 is a critical 

component for life 

on our planet -- 

photosynthesis 

does not happen 

without CO2. 

It is certainly

not a pollutant !

Plants absorb CO2 

and release oxygen 

into the atmosphere.

People absorb oxygen

as we release CO2 

into the atmosphere.

We exhale a roughly
ten times higher

CO2 concentration

than exists in 
the atmosphere.

For green plants, 

Earth has been 

in a CO2 ‘famine’.

They prefer at least

1,000 ppm CO2, 

and many smart 

greenhouse owners 

use CO2 enrichment 

systems to provide 

a 1,000 to 2,000 ppm

inside CO2 level 

for their plants.

Antarctica ice cores 

allow the measurement 

of the relationship between 

CO2 and temperatures

-- but it's up to scientists 

to interpret the results.  

Vostok ice core samples 

from Antarctica refute 

CO2’s claimed role as
the "controller" of 
temperature changes.

In the center of the 

Antarctica ice sheet, the 

Vostok Research Center 

is a collaborative effort 

of Russian and French 

scientists, collecting 

undisturbed ice core 

data in the 1990s.

Vostok ice core samples 

provided the evidence 

of Earth’s climate history 

for 420,000 years, 

including four previous 

glacial and interglacial 

periods. 

Ice core studies show 

carbon dioxide increases 

occurred long AFTER 

temperature increases.

CO2 level lags 

behind temperature 

were originally 

estimated as 

500 to 1,000 years, 

and later estimated 

as many thousands 

of years.

CO2 and 
temperature 

are correlated -- 

they rise and fall together,  

but the peaks and throughs 

are separated by a lag time 

of thousands of years.

The general public 

is not aware that 

geologic records identified 

climate change to include 

natural 100,000 year cycles,

most likely caused
by changes of

planetary geometry.

The 80,000 to 90,000 year

cold periods end with a 

brief, warm interglacial 

period lasting 10,000 

to 20,000 years.

Today we live in the 

Holocene interglacial 

warm period, that began 

at the end of the Pleistocene 

Ice Age -- 10,000 to 12,000 

years ago. 

Interglacial periods 

are the good news 

warm periods, 

between much longer, 

bad news, cold periods.

Within those 

interglacial (warm)

cycles, are minor 

cyclical cooling and 

warming periods:

200 BC – 600 AD: 

Roman warming period

440 AD – 950 AD: 

Dark Ages cool period

950 AD – 1300 AD: 

Medieval warming period

1300 AD – 1850 AD: 

Renaissance 

Little Ice Age cool period,

with the coldest decades 

in the late 1600s

1850 to date:

Modern warming period

In the past 600 million years, 

only the Carboniferous period, 

and today’s "Holocene Epoch",

had CO2 levels LESS than 

the 415 ppm CO2 level today

During the Early

Carboniferous 

Period,  CO2 was

roughly 1,500 ppm, 

with average 

temperatures 

of roughly 

20 degrees C. 

         (68 F),

... before diving 

to 350 ppm CO2

during the 

Mid Carboniferous

period, with a 

reduced average

temperature 

of roughly 

12 degrees C. 

           (54 F)

Past natural

climate change,

discovered by 

geologists and 

other scientists,

were usually
larger than

the +1 degree 

global warming

claimed from 

1880 to 2019 !

Contrary 

to the IPCC’s

primary position,

ignoring the sun,

NASA recognizes 

that:

“All weather on Earth, 

from the surface 

of the planet 

into space, 

begins with the Sun” 

and weather 

experienced 

on Earth’s 

surface is 

“influenced by 

the small changes 

the Sun undergoes 

during its solar cycle.”