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Saturday, April 13, 2019

Climate Change -- The Unscientific Method

Executive Office 
of the President, 2015:
Barack Obama wrote:

"Any changes in climate will result 
in changes to the weather, all of them 
negative (droughts, floods, hurricanes 
or storms, etc.), ... "

As usual, Obama "forgot" to mention:

People arbitrarily blaming every 
bad weather event on climate change,
doesn't make it so.

There's no evidence of a general
trend of negative changes to
weather.

There's lots of evidence the US has 
experienced milder weather
in recent decades. 

But inconvenient data are ignored !

One example:
Obama must not have noticed that not 
one strong (CAT 3+) hurricane made 
U.S. landfall between 2005 and 2017
-- a new U.S. record for consecutive 
years with no CAT 3+ hurricane making
landfall !

All US landfalling hurricanes have been
in a long-term downtrend:










There's plenty of good news from
global warming that's ignored in
"climate assessments":

Any global warming will expand 
the square miles of our planet
that could be used for forestry, 
and agriculture.

That's good news.

There would be longer growing seasons,
lower winter heating bills, and fewer deaths 
due to cold weather. 

That's good news too.

More precipitation, and a greening Earth,
happened during twentieth and 
early twenty-first centuries.

The result was more food production.

That's good news too.




The methodology used to make climate
change predictions and assessments 
of the future climate, is nearly worthless.

The only thing right about the predictions
is the expectation of climate change !




Here are some of the methodology
problems that lead to a track record 
of 100% wrong climate predictions:


Unverified  Climate  Models
Model predictions are always wrong,
but that appears to be no big deal
to the government bureaucrat
climate modelers !

The same scary predictions are 
made every year -- every day, 
if you count numerous climate
predictions in articles and studies.

There appears to be a global contest
to see who can write the scariest 
climate change "campfire story".

Model results, on average 
match a 1970's formula that has 
never been changed, in spite of
it predicting +0.3 degrees per decade
global warming, on average, which is
QUADRUPLE the warming since 1940, 
of only +0.077 degrees per decade
( +0.6 degrees C. warming in 78 years ).



Lack of a Control Group:
The climate is always changing.

There's is no way to stop climate change,
and observe the differences.



Reverse  Causality:
Antarctica ice cores studies show
temperature peaks and troughs
come first -- they happen 
hundreds of years BEFORE
peaks and troughs of CO2 levels.

The climate alarmists claim
just the opposite:
CO2 changes cause 
the global average
temperature to change.



Using the Future as Evidence:
Climate change literature 
presents predictions 
of the future climate.

Reliance on the future is 
an appeal to argument
logical fallacy, rather than 
using real data and evidence,
from climate history, to 
study he actual relationship 
between CO2 atmospheric levels ,
many other variables, and the
global average temperature.



Wild Guess the Costs
of Fossil Fuels, while
Ignoring These Benefits 
of Fossil Fuels: 

-- More  Productive Agriculture:
Improved crop yields from 
artificial fertilizers, mechanization, 
and modern food processing 
techniques. 

Higher atmospheric CO2 levels 
cause plants to grow larger,
while requiring less water. 

The aerial fertilization effect of CO2 
is improving agricultural productivity,
by at least 15%.



-- Fewer  Conflicts:
Violent conflicts have fallen dramatically, 
thanks to prosperity based on affordable 
and reliable energy, and a more abundant
food supply.



-- Faster  Economic  Growth:
Affordable and reliable energy 
is positively correlated 
with economic growth rates,
everywhere in the world. 



-- Reliable  24 / 7  Electricity:
Fossil fuels directly produce 
about 80% of electric power 
in the world. 

Alternative energies can not 
be relied on for continuous power.

There is also no known way
to operate an electric grid 
using mainly solar and wind power.



-- Environmental  
Improvements:
Aerial CO2 fertilization produced 
at least a +15% net 'greening' 
of the planet, especially in dry areas,
per satellite measurements.

Fossil fuels replaced horses as the 
primary means of transportation, 
saving millions of acres of land  for
forests, that had previously been 
needed to grow food for the horses.



-- Lower  
Temperature
- Related  
Mortality:
Extreme cold kills far more people 
than extreme heat.

Fossil fuels enable people 
to heat homes and apartments
at a very reasonable cost.

If burning fossil fuels causes any
global warming, the warming 
is good news for human health.



- Affordable,  
Convenient  
Transportation:
Fossil fuels made transportation faster, 
less expensive, and safer.

The increase in human and product mobility 
was a huge benefit for economic growth.