When a new technology arrives,
it typically takes many decades
to replace an inferior technology.
Cars replacing horses,
wheever possible,
mainly from 1886 to 1940′s
Planes replacing ships,
whenever possible,
mainly from 1903 to 1970′s
The first electric car was 1846,
40 years before the gasoline-
powered car, and the first
rechargeable battery was in 1859.
In my opinion,
electric cars will not
become mainstream
without a lot of
government intervention,
because we will not
replace a
superior technology,
with an inferior one
simply because
politicians and academics
tell us we should.
AUSTRALIAN EXPERIENCE
WITH ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EVs):
The Australian Labor Party's
electric car plan:
Half of all new car sales
to be electric vehicles (EV’s)
by 2030.
But last year only
0.2% of new car
purchases were EV’s.
Electric vehicles produce
carbon emissions when
the grid that charges them
is powered by fossil fuels.
In Australia EV’s are really
80% fossil fuel powered,
and over their lifetime they
will cause more pollution
than internal combustion
engines !
"80%" consists of
60% coal fired, plus
20% natural gas
and diesel powered
( there are also 20% “renewables” ).
The coal percentage would
be even higher than 60%,
if EV's get charged at night,
like most EVs are,
when there is no solar
energy available.
(Figures from Dept. of
Environment and Energy)
“… an electric car recharged by
a coal-fired plant produces as much CO2
as a gasoline-powered car that gets
29 miles per gallon (12.3 km/L).”
(Sivak, 2017)
Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle
University of Michigan’s
Transportation Research Institute.
99.8% of Australians
don’t buy an EV.
EV sales in Australia
were 2,216 last year,
or about one in 500
cars sold.
Only one in 4,000 cars currently
on the road in Australia is electric:
-- There are about 20 million cars
currently registered in Australia.
-- The total pool of all electric vehicles
since Australia was federated
is about 5,000 cars, making EV’s
1 out of 4,000 of all cars on the road
(0.025%).
Each electric car needs $1,500
$2,000 per year in extra network
and electricity generation:
-- The Australian Energy Market
Commission (AEMC)
released a warning in 2013 that found
each electric vehicle could impose
additional network and generation costs
from $7,500 up to $10,000 per vehicle
over the 5 years from 2015 to 2020.
Using AMEX figures,
if half the 20 million Australian
cars were electric, that would add
another $20 billion dollars a year
to network and generation costs
( in 2013 Australian dollars ).
New bigger batteries
need two days to fully charge
at 7kW, which is like adding
“three new houses to the grid”.
If consumers want to fast charge
(who wouldn’t) the 50kW option
is like adding “20 homes”.
( Vector, New Zealand Report 2018 )
Ten million cars fast-charging
at the same time would be like
adding 200 million homes to the grid.
Governments have to offer subsidies
in China, India, Japan, Denmark, Norway
and practically every country on Earth
to get EV's sold.
Sales of EV’s collapsed from 2,000 cars,
to just 32 cars, in Hong Kong,
when subsidies were withdrawn.
In Australia, the Mitsubishi iMiev
arrived in 2010,
with a range of just 150km
and a hefty price tag of $49,000.
The Nissan Leaf was about three times
as expensive as a comparable
petrol-powered car.
The Holden Volt cost $60,000.
Only the super-rich could afford
the more glamorous Tesla Roadster
at more than $200,000.
( cost source Sam Clench, News.com)
NOTES:
1.
The Tesla fast charger
draws over 400 amps.
A domestic wall outlet is rated
at 10 to 15 amps
and air conditioners
at about 25 amps.
A 450kW charger needs new
infrastructure – wires, transformers,
switchgear etc. to deliver this amount
of electricity.
2.
Even without electric cars,
the demand for electric power
increases by over 2% per year.
3.
Rough comparison, on a weekly basis,
of major costs for an Hyundai Ionoq
(all electric)
vs a Toyota Yaris Ascent
(gasoline)
assuming 12,000km driven per year.
Hyundai Ioniq: Electric
Range = up to 230km
in ideal conditions;
Battery = 28kWh;
Price Aus$49,000 to $54,000 (use $52,000)
Costs:
Costs per week for electricity
at 3.8 cents per kilometer = $8.77 (round to 9.00)
Cost per week for depreciation
over 5 years (assume mid-price of $52,000) = $133.00
Cost per week of money at 4% per year = $40.00
Cost per week to service vehicle = $0.00
Insurance costs per week = $30.00
TOTAL weekly costs = $212.00
Toyota Yaris Ascent gasoline
Fuel consumption = 5.8litres/100km;
Price = Aus$15,990
Costs:
Costs per week for fuel
at 7.2 cents/km = $16.62 (rounded to $17.00)
Cost per week for depreciation over 5 years = $52.00
Cost per week of money at 4% per annum = $13.00
Cost per week to service vehicle = $6.00
Insurance costs per week = $14.00
TOTAL weekly costs = $101.00
Cost differential
= $212 – $101
= $111 per week.
Why would anyone go electric ?
(4)
According to Ergon Energy:
The average price for electricity
per kilowatt hour (kWh) in Australia
is about $0.25 and it takes around
18 kWh to travel 100km
in an average EV.
So, it will cost approximately
$4.50 in electricity charges
to travel 100km.
That equates to .045 cents/km
The above may be true,
but the analysis is far
from being complete:
1. Add the replacement cost
of the battery pack in around 8 to 16 years.
2. Add the premium price paid for EV
compared to an internal combustion car.
3. Add the depreciation in EV resale value
as the battery pack replacement time approaches.
4. Add the government tax on electricity
for recharging EVs, to replace
lost fuel tax revenues.
5.
Consider the 80% recharge taking
up to 1 hour each time, adding to
travel time on longer journeys.
(5)
The second-generation Leaf
is due to go on sale in August
with prices starting at $49,990
(before on-road costs).
This is about $5,000 more than the
rival Hyundai Ioniq, but below
what the base Tesla Model 3
would sell for or in Australia.
Depreciation
on a $49,990 Nissan Leaf
over 12 years
= $80.11 depreciation per week
Depreciation
on a $15,990 Toyota Yaris Ascent
over 12 years
= $25.63 depreciation per week
Depreciation Difference
= $80.11 - $25.63
= $54.48 per week
less depreciation expense
for the Toyota Yaris Ascent.
Talking about fuel cost alone,
is very misleading.