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Thursday, April 4, 2019

Electric vehicle "experiments" in Australia

When a new technology arrives, 
it typically takes many decades
to replace an inferior technology.

Cars replacing horses,
wheever possible,
mainly from 1886 to 1940′s

Planes replacing ships,
whenever possible, 
mainly from 1903 to 1970′s

The first electric car was 1846,
40 years before the gasoline-
powered car, and the first 
rechargeable battery was in 1859. 

In my opinion,
electric cars will not 
become mainstream 
without a lot of
government intervention, 
because we will not 
replace a 
superior technology, 
with an inferior one 
simply because 
politicians and academics 
tell us we should.



AUSTRALIAN  EXPERIENCE  
WITH  ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EVs):
The Australian Labor Party's
electric car plan: 
Half of all new car sales 
to be electric vehicles (EV’s)
by 2030. 

But last year only 
0.2% of new car 
purchases were EV’s. 

Electric vehicles produce 
carbon emissions when
the grid that charges them 
is powered by fossil fuels.

In Australia EV’s are really
80% fossil fuel powered, 
and over their lifetime they 
will cause more pollution 
than internal combustion 
engines !

"80%" consists of
60% coal fired, plus
20% natural gas 
and diesel powered 
( there are also 20% “renewables” ). 

The coal percentage would 
be even higher than 60%,
if EV's get charged at night, 
like most EVs are,
when there is no solar 
energy available.
(Figures from Dept. of 
Environment and Energy)

“… an electric car recharged by 
a coal-fired plant produces as much CO2 
as a gasoline-powered car that gets 
29 miles per gallon (12.3 km/L).” 
(Sivak, 2017)
Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle
University of Michigan’s 
Transportation Research Institute.



99.8% of Australians 
don’t buy an EV.

EV sales in Australia 
were 2,216 last year, 
or about one in 500 
cars sold. 

Only one in 4,000 cars currently 
on the road in Australia is electric:

-- There are about 20 million cars 
currently registered in Australia. 

-- The total pool of all electric vehicles 
since Australia was federated 
is about 5,000 cars, making EV’s 
1 out of 4,000 of all cars on the road
(0.025%).




Each electric car needs $1,500
$2,000 per year in extra network 
and electricity generation:

-- The Australian Energy Market 
Commission (AEMC) 
released a warning in 2013 that found 
each electric vehicle could impose 
additional network and generation costs 
from $7,500 up to $10,000 per vehicle 
over the 5 years from 2015 to 2020.

Using AMEX figures, 
if half the 20 million Australian
cars were electric, that would add 
another $20 billion dollars a year 
to network and generation costs 
( in 2013 Australian dollars ).




New bigger batteries 
need two days to fully charge 
at 7kW, which is like adding 
“three new houses to the grid”. 

If consumers want to fast charge 
(who wouldn’t) the 50kW option 
is like adding “20 homes”. 
( Vector, New Zealand Report 2018 )

Ten million cars fast-charging 
at the same time would be like 
adding 200 million homes to the grid.





Governments have to offer subsidies 
in China, India, Japan, Denmark, Norway 
and practically every country on Earth
to get EV's sold.

Sales of EV’s collapsed from 2,000 cars, 
to just 32 cars, in Hong Kong, 
when subsidies were withdrawn.




In Australia, the Mitsubishi iMiev 
arrived in 2010, 
with a range of just 150km 
and a hefty price tag of $49,000. 

The Nissan Leaf was about three times 
as expensive as a comparable 
petrol-powered car. 

The Holden Volt cost $60,000. 

Only the super-rich could afford 
the more glamorous Tesla Roadster 
at more than $200,000.  
( cost source Sam Clench, News.com)




NOTES:

1. 
The Tesla fast charger 
draws over 400 amps. 

A domestic wall outlet is rated 
at 10 to 15 amps 
and air conditioners
at about 25 amps.

A 450kW charger needs new 
infrastructure – wires, transformers, 
switchgear etc. to deliver this amount 
of electricity. 



2. 
Even without electric cars, 
the demand for electric power 
increases by over 2% per year. 



3. 
Rough comparison, on a weekly basis, 
of major costs for an Hyundai Ionoq 
(all electric) 
vs a Toyota Yaris Ascent 
(gasoline) 
assuming 12,000km driven per year.

Hyundai Ioniq: Electric
Range = up to 230km 
in ideal conditions; 
Battery = 28kWh; 
Price Aus$49,000 to $54,000 (use $52,000)

Costs:
Costs per week for electricity 
at 3.8 cents per kilometer = $8.77 (round to 9.00)

Cost per week for depreciation 
over 5 years (assume mid-price of $52,000) = $133.00

Cost per week of money at 4% per year = $40.00

Cost per week to service vehicle = $0.00

Insurance costs per week = $30.00

TOTAL weekly costs = $212.00




Toyota Yaris Ascent gasoline
Fuel consumption = 5.8litres/100km; 
Price = Aus$15,990

Costs:
Costs per week for fuel 
at 7.2 cents/km = $16.62 (rounded to $17.00)

Cost per week for depreciation over 5 years = $52.00

Cost per week of money at 4% per annum = $13.00

Cost per week to service vehicle = $6.00

Insurance costs per week = $14.00

TOTAL weekly costs = $101.00


Cost differential 
= $212 – $101 
= $111 per week.

Why would anyone go electric ?





(4)
According to Ergon Energy:

The average price for electricity 
per kilowatt hour (kWh) in Australia 
is about $0.25 and it takes around 
18 kWh to travel 100km 
in an average EV. 

So, it will cost approximately 
$4.50 in electricity charges 
to travel 100km.

That equates to .045 cents/km

The above may be true,
but the analysis is far
from being complete:

1. Add the replacement cost 
of the battery pack in around 8 to 16 years.

2. Add the premium price paid for EV 
compared to an internal combustion car.

3. Add the depreciation in EV resale value 
as the battery pack replacement time approaches.

4. Add the government tax on electricity 
for recharging EVs, to replace 
lost fuel tax revenues.

5. 
Consider the 80% recharge taking 
up to 1 hour each time, adding to
 travel time on longer journeys.




(5)
The second-generation Leaf 
is due to go on sale in August 
with prices starting at $49,990 
(before on-road costs). 

This is about $5,000 more than the
rival Hyundai Ioniq, but below 
what the base Tesla Model 3 
would sell for or in Australia.

Depreciation 
on a $49,990 Nissan Leaf 
over 12 years 
=  $80.11 depreciation per week

Depreciation 
on a $15,990 Toyota Yaris Ascent 
over 12 years 
=  $25.63 depreciation per week

Depreciation Difference
=  $80.11  -  $25.63  
=  $54.48 per week 
less depreciation expense 
for the Toyota Yaris Ascent.

Talking about fuel cost alone, 
is very misleading.