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Monday, June 3, 2019

U.S. weather is going crazy in 2018 and 2019 -- Who do we blame? ( Donald Trump? Barack Obama? Global warming? Global cooling? )

Greenhouse gas warming 
should cause the cold, 
dry poles to warm 
considerably more 
than the warm, 
humid tropics.

That warming has 
NOT happened 
in Antarctica.

However warming 
has happened 
in the Arctic.

Weather depends 
mainly on temperature 
DIFFERENTIALS 
between the Arctic 
and the tropics.

That temperature 
differential 
has declined 
in the Northern 
Hemisphere 
since the 1970s.

And that is a possible 
explanation for good 
climate news in the
past few decades, 
but the good news 
seems to have 
ended in 2019.

Instead of the usual
mainstream media
predictions of doom,
that are always wrong,
how about considering
what has actually happened
to our US climate and weather ?

Remember that in the 
climate change crisis 
confidence game,
warmer weather 
is "climate change" 
but colder weather
is just "weather" !



Although your editor
has been retired
since January 2005, 
late last year 
I finally reached 65,
and did what 
all 65 year-olds
are supposed to do:
(1) 
Started Medicare, 
(2) 
Complained about 
the weather every day, 
and
(3) 
Chased children 
off my lawn.

Unfortunately,
here in southeastern
Michigan, about five miles
north of the Detroit border,
in Bingham Farms, MI,
the weather has been 
unpleasant since 
December 2018.

The winter was cold
for a long time, starting
in December 2018.

This spring has had so much 
rain that our lawn service,
who we ask to NOT mow 
and damage the lawn 
when the ground is wet
and muddy (water logged),
has only mowed our lawn 
ONCE so far this year, 
as of June 3.

We usually have had
the lawn mowed once 
in late April, and 
four times in May !

Having lived 
in the same home
since 1987, 
this much May rain 
is unprecedented.

But our lawn 
never looked better,
if you like eight inch 
tall grass.



     TEMPERATURE
and PRECIPITATION:
Record US cold from 
October 1 (2018)
through April 30 (2019):
.
.
Record US precipitation from
October 1 (2018)
through May 26 (2019):
.
.
Most US heat waves
happened in the 1930s.
.
.
Thirty-eight US states set their
all-time record high temperatures 
before 1960 ( 23 states in the 1930s ! ).
.
.
Since 1995,
only one US state 
had a heat record, 
while six US states 
had cold temperature 
records:
.
.
The number of 
USHCN ( U.S. )
100 degrees F., 
95F, and 
90F days per year, 
have all been in 
a declining trend, 
since the 1930s.
.
.
James Hansen, 
while working at 
NASA - GISS in 1999, 
said this about the U.S. 
temperature record: 
"In the U.S. the warmest decade 
was the 1930s, and the 
warmest year was 1934."
.
.
Note:
All the continents 
on our planet recorded 
their all-time record high 
temperatures before 1980.
.
.
.
.
.
     HURRICANES:
The Global Accumulated 
Cyclone Index (ACE) 
shows no rise in either 
the number, or power, 
of tropical cyclones 
in the world ( cyclones are 
called hurricanes in the US ).
.
The long-term trend 
in the number, 
and intensity, 
of global hurricane 
activity, has 
remained flat.
.
This is true despite 
much better open 
ocean detection 
of hurricanes,
than before 
the 1960s, 
when many 
short-lived 
storms at sea 
would have
been missed.
.
.
Did you realize 
that the US had 
a long term decline of 
landfalling hurricanes:
.
.
After the active 2005  
hurricane season, 
and before
two major storms 
hit the US in 2017, 
we had 4,324 days 
( almost 12 years ) 
without a 
major hurricane 
making landfall,
( the prior record 
was an 8-year lull, 
from the 1860s ).
.
.
Hurricanes hitting Florida 
have been in a steep 
long term decline:
.
.
.
.
.
.
   TORNADOES:
A long term decline 
of strong tornadoes 
and strong hurricanes 
hitting the US 48 
contiguous states.

.
.
The US, for the first time 
on record, had no 
EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes 
recorded in 2018.
.
.
Strong US tornadoes 
have had a decline 
in frequency since 
.
.
Tornado detection 
has improved with the 
addition of NEXRAD, 
the growth of the 
trained spotter networks, 
storm chasers armed 
with cellular data 
( the proliferation 
of cell phone cameras 
and social media ). 

This shows up most 
in the weak EF0 tornado 
count, but for storms 
from moderate EF1 
to strong EF 3+ intensity, 
the trend slope 
has been flat, 
to down, despite 
improved detection.
.
.
.
.
.
.
     RECENT  2019  
  US  TORNADOES 
   and  FLOODING
Over the last 30 days, 
there have been more 
than 500 tornadoes 
in the United States.

Since 1998, there has been 
an average of 279 tornadoes 
during the month of May.  

So the fact that we have had 
more than 500 over 
the last 30 days, meaning 
2019 is far above average

Note: 
It's officially a "preliminary" report,
of more than 500 tornadoes 
in a 30-day period, after 
a quiet start of the year

According to the National 
Weather Service, there were 
more than 50 tornadoes
over Memorial Day weekend,
and on Tuesday May 28, 2019.
there had been a new US record 
of at least eight tornadoes a day
for 12 consecutive days.

The storms have drawn 
their fuel from 
a high-pressure area 
that pulled the 
Gulf of Mexico’s warm, 
moist air into the central 
United States, where it 
combined with the effects 
of a trough trapped 
over the Rockies, 
which included 
strong winds.





 US  MIDWEST  
   FLOODING
The 12 months 
from May 2018
through April 2019 
were the wettest 
12 months since 
US records were kept.

The US midwest 
had already been 
hit hard from 
unprecedented 
flooding 
in recent months.

Historic flooding along 
the Mississippi and 
Missouri rivers, and now 
severe flooding along 
the Arkansas River too.

USA Today is expecting 
Oklahoma and Arkansas 
to be bracing for their 
worst-ever flooding.




MISSISSIPPI   RIVER 
        FLOODING
Meanwhile, Mississippi River 
flooding has been called 
“the worst in over 90 years”.

In Vicksburg, Mississippi, 
the river went above 
flood stage on Feb. 17, 
and has remained in flood 
ever since -- the longest 
continuous stretch above 
flood stage since 1927.

In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 
the Mississippi first rose
above flood stage in early 
January, and has been 
above that level ever since.

If this stretch extends well 
into June, it would break 
the record from 1927, 
according to the 
Weather Channel.

The Mississippi River at
the Quad Cities of Iowa 
and Illinois saw its longest 
stretch above major flood 
stage ever recorded, 
surpassing 1927.




US  FARMERS
So far in 2019, US 
agricultural production 
is way below expectations.  

Be prepared for higher 
prices at the grocery store.

Below is the last article 
on the subject
from my economics blog,
with links to three prior articles
at the end of the article:
https://el2017.blogspot.com/2019/04/third-update-on-us-midwest-flooding.html