You have to start
by assuming
a strong link
between greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions
and climate change.
There is no proof of that relationship
outside of laboratory experiments,
where CO2 exhibits a mild, harmless
greenhouse effect.
The actual greenhouse effect in the
atmosphere is unknown, and any
feedback effects are also unknown.
The large additions of CO2
to the atmosphere started after
the Great Depression (after 1940).
The 78 years of CO2 emissions
were accompanied by mild and
intermittent global warming,
at a rate of less than
+0.8 degrees C. per century.
If you want to believe CO2 emissions
caused most of the post 1940 warming,
that would be a reasonable guess.
But if you oppose GHG emissions,
the main reason should be the real
pollution (chemicals other than CO2)
released from burning fossil fuels,
that have especially polluted the air
in most Chinese and Indian cities.
You never hear any western
environmentalists complain
about air pollution in those
Asian cities.
Keep that in your mind as you
read about the UN's failed attempts
to reduce global GHG emissions:
The first major UN climate change
initiative was establishment
of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
in 1988, by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and the UN
Environment Program (UNEP).
Three UN legal instruments
relating to climate change
have been agreed to since then:
(1)
The UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
produced by the UN’s Rio
‘Earth Summit’ in 1992.
It's objective was to stabilize
greenhouse gas concentrations
‘at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic
( human caused ) interference
with the climate system’.
(2)
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol
‘binds developed country Parties
to emission reduction targets’,
adopted at the third Conference
to the Parties of the UNFCCC
(COP 3) in 1997.
The first commitment period
was from 2008 to 2012,
while the second commitment
period began in 2013 and will
end in 2020.
Most of the western countries
were expected to reduce
their GHG emissions between
the 1990 baseline, and the
2008-2012 commitment period.
Developing countries
were exempt, so their
economies could ‘catch up’
with the West.
The EU agreed
to an 8% decrease
in emissions between 1990
and 2008-2012.
The US failed to ratify
the Kyoto Protocol.
Canada announced
its withdrawal in 2011.
That left the EU as
the only major emitter with
an emissions reduction target.
The European Commission, the EU,
and its Member States, claim they
met their commitments under
the 2008-2012 commitment period.
The EU countries, plus Iceland,
agreed to jointly meet
a 20% reduction target
by 2020, compared with 1990.
The EU was joined by
some other countries,
including Switzerland,
Norway and Australia,
in curbing emissions.
But not by the US and
Canada, and the
less developed
"Annex II"
countries were
always exempt.
RESULTS:
CO2 emissions rose significantly
after 1990, with the global total
up by nearly 60% between
1990 and 2016, with China and
India quadrupling CO2 emissions
over the period.
China and India are now
the world’s first and third
largest CO2 emitters.
(3)
The 2015 Paris Agreement,
agreed at the 21st Conference
to the Parties of the
UNFCCC (COP 21) in 2015,
‘to combat climate change
and to accelerate and intensify
the actions and investments
needed for a sustainable
low carbon future’.
According to the UN,
the Paris Agreement’s
‘central aim is to strengthen
the global response to the threat
of climate change by keeping
the global temperature rise
this century well below +2 degrees
Celsius above pre-industrial levels
and to pursue efforts to limit
the temperature increase
even further, to +1.5 degrees C.’
Before the 2015 Paris Conference,
participating countries were asked
to submit their energy policies
and emissions expectations
for the next 15 years.
There were to be countries’
individual ‘Climate Action Plans’,
detailing how they proposed
to meet the aims of the proposed
Agreement in the years up to 2030.
Like Kyoto, there were two groups
of countries:
(1)
Developed Western countries,
agreeing to significant emissions
cuts, and paying into a new
‘Green Climate Fund’, designed
to assist the developing world,
(2) The developing world nations
would do "their best" to curb
their emissions from fossil fuels,
and expand the use of ‘renewables’.
LIKELY RESULTS:
Almost all high-emitting
developing economies
are expected to raise
their CO2 emissions
significantly by 2030.
Both China and India
are building large numbers
of coal-fired power stations,
resulting in a doubling
of China’s emissions,
and tripling of
India’s emissions,
by 2030 !
Russia, the fourth largest emitter,
was proposing to increase emissions
substantially.
Japan, the fifth largest emitter,
claimed it intended to cut emissions
by around 15%, but is planning
to build more coal-fired power plants.
Global remissions could be
50% higher in 2030 than in 2013.
The countries intending to cut
their emissions were President
Obama’s US, the EU, Canada
and Australia.
Following President Trump’s
decision to withdraw from
the Paris Agreement in 2017,
that leaves the EU still in
( less than 10% of total global emissions ),
along with Canada and Australia
( less than 3% of total global emissions, combined ).
The EU committed to reduce GHG emissions
by at least 40% by 2030, compared with 1990,
under its wider ‘2030 climate and energy
framework’.
Of course
it's all just talk,
good intentions,
and leftist
virtue signalling,
until the goals
are actually met.