BACKGROUND:
I got interested in
real climate science
articles and studies
in 1997.
Within one hour,
I doubted the
ability of people
to predict
the climate
100 years
in the future.
Those predictions
were, and still are,
the entire foundation
of the coming climate
change crisis cult.
23 years later,
my doubts about
climate predictions
are even stronger.
Real climate science
is still 95% of my reading.
The remaining 5% is
climate junk science.
( aka "climate change" )
-- the always wrong,
wild-guess predictions
of a coming climate crisis.
Junk science is
a lot more fun to read,
and much easier to read,
than real climate science,
assuming you like reading
fiction ... which I don't like !
Junk climate science
is what we read in
the mainstream media.
My basic instincts
are to never trust
predictions
of the future.
Especially
the very
confident
predictions.
Especially
predictions
that a trend
in progress
for a long time,
MUST continue.
Or predictions
that the future
is going to be
completely
different
than the
past.
While I was
earning a
Finance MBA,
we learned
that "experts"
on any subject
have a poor
track record
for predictions.
Even worse
than laymen
on that subject !
The research
to determine that
was based on
people who were
willing to make
a prediction.
One root cause
for "experts"
making so many
wrong predictions,
is that so few
"experts" are
willing to admit
"I don't know", or
"No one knows".
Consider U.S.
economists:
As a group, U.S.
economists have
NEVER predicted
a U.S. recession,
even knowing one
is likely to happen
in every decade.
Most U.S. economists
don't even recognize
the U.S. is in a recession
until up to six months
after one has started !
But never mind
the great difficulty
of predicting
the future.
When we hear
the scary
predictions
of the global
"average"
temperature
100 years
in the future,
we are told
we MUST trust
those predictions,
and public policies
MUST assume the
predictions are true.
And we MUST
trust the claim
that climate change
in the next 100 years
will be 100% bad news,
completely unlike
climate change in the
past 300 years, which
was 100% good news.
And we MUST act now,
because the planet
can not afford to wait
for better "research"
( more wild guess predictions ).
Consider the
"leftist logic"
of climate change:
- Do exactly
what we say
to "stop"
climate change,
because
we are right
about a coming
climate crisis.
Also do exactly
what we say
to "stop"
climate change,
even if we are wrong,
because there's no time
to wait for proof
that we are right !
( the nonsense of the
"precautionary principle" )
When the public
loses interest in
a climate prediction
of doom, the next
scary prediction
is usually
ramped up to
a scarier level.
The next year
we hear:
"It's even worse
than we thought
last year."
The year after,
we hear:
"It's even worse than
worse than we thought".
The process seems
like a competition
to get attention,
by telling the
scariest climate
change story so far.
Leftist-biased
media sources
( 95% of them )
can make
ANY prediction
of climate doom,
with strong
expectations
that no other
leftist media source
will ever question
their prediction(s).
The leftist media
will never discuss
past predictions,
even though 100%
of them were wrong !
Apparently, the
failed predictions
are never "news"
worth reporting,
by the mainstream
media !
Last summer the BBC
website had a bizarre
headline:
"Climate change:
12 years to save the planet?
Make that 18 months."
Scaremongering
attracts page views,
and is so common
that readers
are distracted
from investigating
the 100% wrong
past "eco-doomsday
deadlines" that have
already passed.
Twenty years ago,
there was a story
claiming children
around the world
were not going to
know what snow was.
Roughly at the same time,
The Guardian newspaper
(UK) warned, that by 2020,
Great Britain would be
plunged into a
"Siberian" climate.
With climate alarmists,
one day they predict
we're never going to
see snow again –
the next day
they predict
we'll be covered
by snow.
There are so many
climate predictions,
that they contradict
one another !