In a Nature magazine
commentary,
Zeke Hausfather,
of The Breakthrough
Institute, and Glen Peters,
of the CICERO Center
for International Climate
Research, argued that
fast CO2 growth scenarios
are too often used, when
they re not appropriate,
for climate projections.
Four drivers
of CO2 growth are:
(1)
population growth,
(2)
per capita GDP,
(3) energy intensity
of the economy, and
(4) CO2 intensity
of energy consumption.
These four factors
are the Kaya identity,
named after Japanese
scientist Yoichi Kaya.
Most IPCC CO2 growth
scenarios have over-
projected global CO2
emissions from fossil
fuels.
The divergence between
real-world observations,
and IPCC baseline scenarios,
is also expected to widen
over the next few decades.
Carbon dioxide emissions
are NOT growing
as fast as expected
mainly because
of the boom
in natural gas,
from fracking,
making coal less
competitive.
Many IPCC scenarios
over-project global
per-capita GDP growth.
In the real world,
economic growth
is low in many
developed nations,
because of a
low birth rate,
which slows the
labor force growth.
Climate models
have never
corresponded
with the real world.
Yet public policies
are based on them.
That makes no sense !