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Sunday, July 26, 2020

The Art and Science of Historical Temperature "Reconstructions"

I said 
"historical" 
temperatures,
meaning proxy 
measurements 
made today, 
that can be used  
indirectly to estimate
past temperatures
in a specific location.

That is real science.

I did not say 
"hysterical" 
temperatures,
meaning leftists claiming 
they can predict the future, 
see only a bad climate ahead, 
and demand that you
do everything they say, 
without question,
even if they are wrong,
because doing nothing
could be a huge risk !

That is junk science -- actually
a political strategy borrowed
from religious leaders, who 
claim you will go to hell if you
don't follow their commandments.

That strategy doesn't work on me,
because I've been an atheist for
about 60 years !

For us, there is the secular
alternative "religion" of 
the coming climate change
crisis.

You don't have to pack 
your bags, and go to hell,
because the entire planet 
around you will become 
like hell, from climate 
change !

A climate crisis
we have been told
is coming,
for the past 
50 years, so far,
buy it never arrives ?

A good fairy tale for 
a six year old, maybe ?

But that strategy 
doesn't work 
on me either.



Real scientists are still trying 
to figure out the past climate
on our planet, and the causes
of  past climate change are still
a list of the usual suspects. 
but in no particular order.

The junk science of climate change
is that one variable, man made CO2,
emitted from burning fossil fuels,
controls the future global average
temperature.

And never mind the 4.5 billion years
of naturally caused climate change
before 1975 !



Let's move away from the usual,
always wrong, speculation about
the future climate, and consider
how the past climate can be 
estimated with measurements
made today.

Real science.

Complicated.

Not precise.

Many unknowns.

Scientists "reconstruct"
past temperatures, and
sometimes CO2 levels,
with proxy measurements.

Good” proxies can't have 
inconsistent and noisy data, 
not all of which are “proxies” 
for the item being reconstructed. 

Geophysicists and geologists 
may combine “good” (high 
resolution) data, with lower 
quality data, rather than
leaving gaps in their studies.

That might be human nature,
but is not good science.

For a type of proxy to be useful 
in a reconstruction network, 
it needs to have been applied 
to many locations.

There are dozens of polar ice
core isotope series, 
for one example,
qualifying that proxy class 
as being well distributed.

A good proxy 
also needs to be
high resolution 
and well-dated.

Ice cores are dated 
with high accuracy. 

Ocean sediments 
are not well dated. 

Resolution 
of  ice core, and 
other proxies,
deteriorates
with age.


We know the results of the 
Canadian glaciers melting,
from around 20,000 to 10,000
years ago -- they left Michigan,
where I live, filled with lakes !

A proxy that covers the build
up, and then melting, of all that
ice (that raised sea level by 
about 120 meters, or 400 feet).
would capture a huge 
fairly recent event that 
you'd want to be visible
in your proxy data.

Antarctic (and Greenland) 
ice cores are a very important 
example of such proxies.

But remember that
the ice cores are 
from glaciers, 
which are really
very slow flowing 
"rivers of ice"

The source ice, 
from deeper sections 
of an ice core, can come 
from higher elevations, 
imparting a bias 
to the series. 

Changes in elevation 
of the Greenland 
and Antarctic
ice sheets
(mostly lowering) 
result in an important
long-term drift in the 
association between 
isotopes (d18O, d2H)
and temperature. 

Real science is complicated.

Junk climate science is
simple -- 
gloomy predictions
are merely asserted,
(while wrong past
predictions are 
always ignored)

... and 
their "proof"
is the usual
'you're too stupid
to be worthy of 
a debate with us'
statement,
that's typical 
of leftists:
' Because we 
are important
federal
goobermint 
officials, 
with advanced
science degrees, 
and we say so! '