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Thursday, June 18, 2015

Ocean temperature measurements are haphazard


Now the Pope believes in a coming global warming catastrophe.
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So he has become the world's leading spokesman for two anti-science beliefs: 
(1) Creationism, based on the bible, and 
(2) The Coming Global Warming Catastrophe, based on computer games with no predictive ability. 
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Believers in a coming global warming disaster are very unlikely to read this blog, or anything else that contradicts what they choose to believe. 
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They have closed minds.
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If a pilot reports seeing a UFO, as several thousand pilots have done, UFO debunkers will come out in force. 
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But when former Democrat vice-president Al Gore, who took only two elementary science courses in college, and didn't get an A or B in either of them, claims he sees an environmental apocalypse ahead, not one Democrat is skeptical. 
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There is no scientific evidence that carbon dioxide (CO2) is more than a minor factor in determining Earth's climate.
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That's why the average temperature of Earth has no correlation with CO2.
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The average temperature goes down far more often than it goes up, as the percentage of CO2 in the air increases!
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For example:
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1940 to 1976 = CO2 up, and temperature trend DOWN
1976 to 1998 = CO2 up, and temperature trend up
1998 to 2015 = CO2 up, and temperature trend DOWN
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The three trends above are based on NASA surface measurements through 1978, and then from more accurate data, with much better global coverage, from NASA weather satellites, starting in 1979. 
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Surface measurements show almost +1.5 degrees F. of warming from 1880 to 2015.
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But surface measurements are not accurate, so most, or all, of the measured warming since 1880 could be measurement errors.  
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The main problem with surface measurements: 
Ocean temperature measurements (70% of Earth's surface) may be so inaccurate they are worthless.  
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Ocean Temperature Analysis:
The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set combines about 125 million records from ship logs, and 60 million readings from buoys and other sources.
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So, over two-thirds of raw water temperature data have been collected by ships, meaning those data were collected only in shipping lanes, and shipping lanes are mainly in the Northern Hemisphere -- so the raw data are far from being global data. 
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(1) At first, wooden buckets were thrown over the side of ships, filled with seawater, and hauled up on deck. Then a thermometer was placed in the water. That's very crude "science".
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(2) Then wooden buckets were replaced with canvas buckets.
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(3) Then canvas buckets were replaced with insulated buckets.
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(4) Then insulated buckets were replaced with temperature readings of intake water drawn into ships to cool the engines.
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(5) Then ship hull temperature sensors were used.

For the remaining one third of the ocean surface temperature data, drifting buoys, moored buoys and other sources were used.
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In addition to frequently changing measurement methodologies, and poor coverage of the world's oceans, consider these additional measurement problems:
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(1) Sailors are not likely to take bucket readings during storms,
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(2) Temperature readings are not likely to be taken at the same time each day,
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(3) Water temperature in a bucket will change as it is hauled up, depending on how tall the ship is, whether the bucket is wood, canvas, or insulated, and how quickly the temperature is taken,
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(4) Engine cooling water intakes of small ships will be just below the water surface, compared with up to 15 meters below the water surface for big ships, 
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(5) Hull sensors will also be at different depths, and sensors can be affected by the heat from engines,
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(6) For sophisticated ships that have meteorological equipment on deck, modern ships tend to be taller than older ships, so the instruments will be at different heights relative to sea level,  
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(7) Buoys measure temperature closer to the water surface than engine cooling water intakes on ships, 
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(8) There were few buoys in the oceans before 1970,
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(9) Half the raw ocean temperature data do not include a description of the methodology used to make the measurement, and data for the depth of the engine cooling water intake, or the height of the ship, is likely to be missing too, and
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(10) Since most of the oceans outside shipping lanes were not measured, there must be a lot of wild guessing to fill in data for unmeasured areas of the oceans = a huge opportunity for inadvertent data errors and deliberate data manipulation.